1 00:00:08,710 --> 00:00:05,829 hey good afternoon everybody uh so as 2 00:00:10,310 --> 00:00:08,720 erie's mentioned i'm i'm walt peterson 3 00:00:12,629 --> 00:00:10,320 and uh 4 00:00:14,470 --> 00:00:12,639 i'm a gpm ground validation uh science 5 00:00:15,990 --> 00:00:14,480 manager actually out here in 6 00:00:18,470 --> 00:00:16,000 near treyarch iowa in the middle of a 7 00:00:20,390 --> 00:00:18,480 cornfield with uh two radars and i'm 8 00:00:22,950 --> 00:00:20,400 just going to show you 9 00:00:24,950 --> 00:00:22,960 inside the radar trailer here so way 10 00:00:26,950 --> 00:00:24,960 down there at the end is one of my 11 00:00:29,429 --> 00:00:26,960 colleagues uh radar engineer from 12 00:00:30,710 --> 00:00:29,439 colorado state running our nasa d3r 13 00:00:35,270 --> 00:00:30,720 radar 14 00:00:38,709 --> 00:00:35,280 things from a display i think you can 15 00:00:41,510 --> 00:00:38,719 see it's our product output window here 16 00:00:43,830 --> 00:00:41,520 this shows doppler velocity and return 17 00:00:46,470 --> 00:00:43,840 power from the radar radar reflectivity 18 00:00:49,190 --> 00:00:46,480 and some other polarimetric variables 19 00:00:50,549 --> 00:00:49,200 and then over here as i swing past my 20 00:00:53,750 --> 00:00:50,559 face 21 00:00:55,430 --> 00:00:53,760 hopefully yes okay so here is a 22 00:00:57,029 --> 00:00:55,440 real-time display 23 00:00:59,029 --> 00:00:57,039 that's what we look at as the radar 24 00:01:00,790 --> 00:00:59,039 spins as it's doing right now actually 25 00:01:02,709 --> 00:01:00,800 it shows us the returns from precip and 26 00:01:05,030 --> 00:01:02,719 the real-time display and then we've got 27 00:01:06,870 --> 00:01:05,040 some power panels and uh battery 28 00:01:09,350 --> 00:01:06,880 packs and that kind of stuff to ensure 29 00:01:11,990 --> 00:01:09,360 our backup power 30 00:01:13,590 --> 00:01:12,000 look inside the science container and 31 00:01:16,310 --> 00:01:13,600 then i'll just put this back down and 32 00:01:18,630 --> 00:01:16,320 transfer it back to aries 33 00:01:20,310 --> 00:01:18,640 okay 34 00:01:22,550 --> 00:01:20,320 thank you so much for that tour of the 35 00:01:24,710 --> 00:01:22,560 trailer um let's give a give it right to 36 00:01:27,190 --> 00:01:24,720 our honored guest maria larosa from the 37 00:01:28,390 --> 00:01:27,200 weather channel um mir you have now a 38 00:01:31,030 --> 00:01:28,400 panel of 39 00:01:33,030 --> 00:01:31,040 scientists who study uh rain and 40 00:01:34,870 --> 00:01:33,040 flooding and flood prediction uh take it 41 00:01:37,190 --> 00:01:34,880 away 42 00:01:39,350 --> 00:01:37,200 yeah this is this is fantastic and you 43 00:01:41,270 --> 00:01:39,360 know obviously flood's something that 44 00:01:43,510 --> 00:01:41,280 affects people worldwide and so i want 45 00:01:46,069 --> 00:01:43,520 to bring in uh pedro to talk a little 46 00:01:47,670 --> 00:01:46,079 bit more about hazards the hazard of 47 00:01:50,389 --> 00:01:47,680 flood and what kind of impact we're 48 00:01:51,910 --> 00:01:50,399 talking about worldwide 49 00:01:54,310 --> 00:01:51,920 thank you maria 50 00:01:55,749 --> 00:01:54,320 flooding is a serious problem worldwide 51 00:01:56,710 --> 00:01:55,759 it is a zero problem in the united 52 00:01:59,270 --> 00:01:56,720 states 53 00:02:02,310 --> 00:01:59,280 uh among the weather 54 00:02:04,709 --> 00:02:02,320 disasters in the u.s it is second only 55 00:02:06,789 --> 00:02:04,719 to heat in the number of deaths 56 00:02:08,630 --> 00:02:06,799 and it is number one in the number of 57 00:02:10,070 --> 00:02:08,640 damages even more than hurricanes and 58 00:02:12,150 --> 00:02:10,080 tornadoes 59 00:02:15,030 --> 00:02:12,160 this is on the average through the 60 00:02:16,869 --> 00:02:15,040 history this is we have a couple of uh 61 00:02:19,910 --> 00:02:16,879 visuals to show 62 00:02:23,510 --> 00:02:19,920 what the impact is on number of deaths 63 00:02:27,910 --> 00:02:23,520 and number of damages and value of 64 00:02:30,630 --> 00:02:27,920 damages throughout the years since 1903. 65 00:02:32,949 --> 00:02:30,640 the uh but it is a worldwide problem 66 00:02:35,509 --> 00:02:32,959 walt will be able to talk a little bit 67 00:02:38,470 --> 00:02:35,519 more about what the impact is worldwide 68 00:02:41,750 --> 00:02:38,480 of flooding for us the weather service 69 00:02:44,550 --> 00:02:41,760 having the opportunity to participate on 70 00:02:46,869 --> 00:02:44,560 on this experiment and eventually having 71 00:02:48,309 --> 00:02:46,879 the opportunity to receive information 72 00:02:51,750 --> 00:02:48,319 from the 73 00:02:55,030 --> 00:02:51,760 satellite-based gpm it will give us a 74 00:02:55,990 --> 00:02:55,040 considerable advantage for improving the 75 00:02:58,070 --> 00:02:56,000 uh 76 00:03:00,070 --> 00:02:58,080 river flow forecasting 77 00:03:02,390 --> 00:03:00,080 we have an extensive network of radars 78 00:03:05,670 --> 00:03:02,400 throughout the world and we have another 79 00:03:09,270 --> 00:03:05,680 visual to to to uh display 80 00:03:10,790 --> 00:03:09,280 that even though the network is very 81 00:03:12,790 --> 00:03:10,800 widespread throughout the u.s we have 82 00:03:14,309 --> 00:03:12,800 150 radars 83 00:03:16,869 --> 00:03:14,319 there are gaps in the coverage 84 00:03:18,550 --> 00:03:16,879 especially at the lower elevations that 85 00:03:21,430 --> 00:03:18,560 having the advantage of the satellites 86 00:03:24,229 --> 00:03:21,440 looking from from space down into earth 87 00:03:30,309 --> 00:03:24,239 will help us fill those gaps and improve 88 00:03:34,149 --> 00:03:32,070 wonderful thank you i want to remind our 89 00:03:35,589 --> 00:03:34,159 audience that um you can please ask us 90 00:03:38,789 --> 00:03:35,599 any questions about floods or flood 91 00:03:40,789 --> 00:03:38,799 prediction here in the google chat in on 92 00:03:42,869 --> 00:03:40,799 youtube if you're watching on youtube in 93 00:03:44,470 --> 00:03:42,879 the comments section or if you want to 94 00:03:46,630 --> 00:03:44,480 send us some questions through twitter 95 00:03:49,910 --> 00:03:46,640 just use the hashtag ifleds that's the 96 00:03:52,149 --> 00:03:49,920 letter i and then floods with an s 97 00:03:54,550 --> 00:03:52,159 moving on a little bit i'd like to ask 98 00:03:56,789 --> 00:03:54,560 vitek a question um now 99 00:03:59,110 --> 00:03:56,799 one of the things that this particular 100 00:04:00,390 --> 00:03:59,120 ground campaign is focusing on 101 00:04:02,390 --> 00:04:00,400 is iowa 102 00:04:04,229 --> 00:04:02,400 and i'm i know you're out there in iowa 103 00:04:06,550 --> 00:04:04,239 v tech first of all why are you focusing 104 00:04:07,830 --> 00:04:06,560 in iowa of all places and then what is 105 00:04:09,910 --> 00:04:07,840 happening out there with this ground 106 00:04:10,949 --> 00:04:09,920 campaign 107 00:04:13,270 --> 00:04:10,959 yes 108 00:04:16,710 --> 00:04:13,280 well this is 109 00:04:18,390 --> 00:04:16,720 a natural question you know why iowa 110 00:04:19,909 --> 00:04:18,400 well the simple 111 00:04:22,469 --> 00:04:19,919 answer would be 112 00:04:24,870 --> 00:04:22,479 because we've got floods 113 00:04:28,469 --> 00:04:24,880 and it is true that 114 00:04:31,189 --> 00:04:28,479 our state got its share of flooding over 115 00:04:33,030 --> 00:04:31,199 the last several years 116 00:04:35,189 --> 00:04:33,040 in 2008 117 00:04:38,390 --> 00:04:35,199 we had an extreme event 118 00:04:40,230 --> 00:04:38,400 um that cost you know the state close to 119 00:04:42,390 --> 00:04:40,240 10 billion dollars 120 00:04:43,189 --> 00:04:42,400 and at that time 121 00:04:45,350 --> 00:04:43,199 um 122 00:04:49,189 --> 00:04:45,360 the value if you will of that you know 123 00:04:52,550 --> 00:04:49,199 disaster ranked the fifth cost dealers 124 00:04:53,350 --> 00:04:52,560 in the history of the united states so 125 00:04:55,990 --> 00:04:53,360 so 126 00:04:56,710 --> 00:04:56,000 we're talking you know real money 127 00:04:59,430 --> 00:04:56,720 and 128 00:05:02,870 --> 00:04:59,440 in particular the city 129 00:05:05,430 --> 00:05:02,880 in eastern iowa the city of cedar rapids 130 00:05:07,909 --> 00:05:06,710 affected 131 00:05:09,430 --> 00:05:07,919 in a 132 00:05:10,469 --> 00:05:09,440 terrible way 133 00:05:11,749 --> 00:05:10,479 some 134 00:05:15,510 --> 00:05:11,759 thousand 135 00:05:20,070 --> 00:05:15,520 city blocks were inundated by that flood 136 00:05:22,550 --> 00:05:20,080 the flood came on very suddenly 137 00:05:26,550 --> 00:05:22,560 it was a case of a traffic jam in the 138 00:05:29,590 --> 00:05:26,560 river network there was already a flood 139 00:05:32,230 --> 00:05:29,600 flood wave moving downstream and that 140 00:05:33,670 --> 00:05:32,240 coincided with a response to a 141 00:05:35,990 --> 00:05:33,680 torrential 142 00:05:38,469 --> 00:05:36,000 flash flooding you know event 143 00:05:41,670 --> 00:05:38,479 and you know that two collided you can 144 00:05:42,550 --> 00:05:41,680 say downtown cedar rapids and so 145 00:05:44,390 --> 00:05:42,560 um 146 00:05:46,629 --> 00:05:44,400 but this was not the last you know 147 00:05:50,710 --> 00:05:46,639 flooding in iowa uh 148 00:05:52,790 --> 00:05:50,720 um there were floods in 2010 and then 149 00:05:55,430 --> 00:05:52,800 many of us remember the flooding on the 150 00:05:57,590 --> 00:05:55,440 missouri river which is one of our 151 00:06:00,870 --> 00:05:57,600 border rivers 152 00:06:03,670 --> 00:06:00,880 that lasted for several weeks um and 153 00:06:05,749 --> 00:06:03,680 even now as we are in the middle of this 154 00:06:08,150 --> 00:06:05,759 field campaign 155 00:06:10,150 --> 00:06:08,160 we've got you know flooding 156 00:06:13,670 --> 00:06:10,160 over the last you know month in several 157 00:06:15,749 --> 00:06:13,680 places in iowa um including you know 158 00:06:18,309 --> 00:06:15,759 here in iowa city uh 159 00:06:21,110 --> 00:06:18,319 where i'm speaking you know from so 160 00:06:23,510 --> 00:06:21,120 um and and still the rivers and streams 161 00:06:25,830 --> 00:06:23,520 are you know running you know high uh 162 00:06:28,870 --> 00:06:25,840 which of course you know makes uh for a 163 00:06:29,670 --> 00:06:28,880 good case for scientific you know study 164 00:06:32,309 --> 00:06:29,680 uh 165 00:06:34,710 --> 00:06:32,319 but i wish that that 166 00:06:39,830 --> 00:06:34,720 flooding would stop 167 00:06:43,670 --> 00:06:41,350 excellent thank you so much we're told 168 00:06:45,430 --> 00:06:43,680 i'm wondering so so 169 00:06:47,670 --> 00:06:45,440 what do you need to know to make a flood 170 00:06:50,309 --> 00:06:47,680 forecast what's the exact data that can 171 00:06:51,830 --> 00:06:50,319 lead to being a forecaster and um is 172 00:06:53,350 --> 00:06:51,840 this like the weather forecast we watch 173 00:06:55,350 --> 00:06:53,360 in the nightly news every night you know 174 00:06:58,150 --> 00:06:55,360 where it's like chance of sunny partly 175 00:06:59,510 --> 00:06:58,160 cloudy that type of thing 176 00:07:02,150 --> 00:06:59,520 well you 177 00:07:05,110 --> 00:07:02,160 have to watch the conditions over a 178 00:07:06,950 --> 00:07:05,120 longer you know period of time so 179 00:07:10,950 --> 00:07:06,960 so what is 180 00:07:12,230 --> 00:07:10,960 very important here is the scale so 181 00:07:14,710 --> 00:07:12,240 um 182 00:07:16,950 --> 00:07:14,720 for small scale you know very small you 183 00:07:20,070 --> 00:07:16,960 know watersheds um 184 00:07:21,990 --> 00:07:20,080 there is a very quick response to any 185 00:07:26,150 --> 00:07:22,000 heavy rainfall 186 00:07:29,110 --> 00:07:26,160 but as the scale increases uh then that 187 00:07:32,070 --> 00:07:29,120 connection between you know the rainfall 188 00:07:34,629 --> 00:07:32,080 and the the response and and again you 189 00:07:36,870 --> 00:07:34,639 know the responses in the form of the 190 00:07:38,790 --> 00:07:36,880 amount of water that is you know moving 191 00:07:41,270 --> 00:07:38,800 you know through the system of 192 00:07:43,589 --> 00:07:41,280 streams and rivers 193 00:07:45,670 --> 00:07:43,599 that connection uh 194 00:07:48,790 --> 00:07:45,680 is is a little bit less 195 00:07:52,309 --> 00:07:48,800 obvious and you know i can i can give 196 00:07:57,749 --> 00:07:54,469 example here so 197 00:08:01,029 --> 00:07:57,759 imagine yourself in new orleans 198 00:08:03,990 --> 00:08:01,039 and then there is a severe storm in iowa 199 00:08:07,029 --> 00:08:04,000 um well you don't see the immediate 200 00:08:08,869 --> 00:08:07,039 effect of that storm in iowa when you 201 00:08:10,950 --> 00:08:08,879 are 202 00:08:13,990 --> 00:08:10,960 hundreds and thousands of miles you know 203 00:08:17,110 --> 00:08:14,000 away but the two are connected you know 204 00:08:19,430 --> 00:08:17,120 that water eventually will um find its 205 00:08:21,350 --> 00:08:19,440 way uh all the way down you know to the 206 00:08:24,550 --> 00:08:21,360 outlet of 207 00:08:27,830 --> 00:08:24,560 of of the mississippi river basin so um 208 00:08:30,869 --> 00:08:27,840 so again it's an issue of scale and of 209 00:08:32,709 --> 00:08:30,879 course rainfall especially large amounts 210 00:08:33,829 --> 00:08:32,719 of rainfall that's a necessary 211 00:08:35,110 --> 00:08:33,839 ingredient 212 00:08:37,909 --> 00:08:35,120 um 213 00:08:40,550 --> 00:08:37,919 and how 214 00:08:42,149 --> 00:08:40,560 the ground responds to that rainfall 215 00:08:45,030 --> 00:08:42,159 whether 216 00:08:47,750 --> 00:08:45,040 or what fraction of it will infiltrate 217 00:08:50,550 --> 00:08:47,760 and what fraction of it 218 00:08:53,030 --> 00:08:50,560 will find its way to streams and rivers 219 00:08:53,910 --> 00:08:53,040 that is you know determined by 220 00:08:57,750 --> 00:08:53,920 um 221 00:09:00,790 --> 00:08:57,760 by land use uh and the soil properties 222 00:09:02,150 --> 00:09:00,800 but after that it is the transport in 223 00:09:08,550 --> 00:09:02,160 that 224 00:09:12,070 --> 00:09:08,560 of the flooding and 225 00:09:14,230 --> 00:09:12,080 its extent so so it's a complicated you 226 00:09:15,509 --> 00:09:14,240 know phenomenon and you have to have a 227 00:09:17,750 --> 00:09:15,519 good handle 228 00:09:21,509 --> 00:09:17,760 on all these you know conditions to be 229 00:09:27,990 --> 00:09:25,190 i wanted to ask vtec and walt and pedro 230 00:09:29,269 --> 00:09:28,000 it's very complicated forecasting floods 231 00:09:31,829 --> 00:09:29,279 what do you 232 00:09:34,230 --> 00:09:31,839 gentlemen see as good aspects to what we 233 00:09:39,269 --> 00:09:34,240 have now and then how can things like 234 00:09:49,110 --> 00:09:41,590 so perhaps perhaps pedro should take 235 00:09:53,350 --> 00:09:50,710 hi pedro take it away i think we're 236 00:09:57,829 --> 00:09:53,360 having a problem with your mic 237 00:10:01,590 --> 00:09:59,190 the uh the main advantage of 238 00:10:03,430 --> 00:10:01,600 precipitation from satellites uh well 239 00:10:05,430 --> 00:10:03,440 there are many advantages one of them is 240 00:10:08,230 --> 00:10:05,440 the global coverage it goes throughout 241 00:10:10,470 --> 00:10:08,240 the most most of the world given that 242 00:10:11,910 --> 00:10:10,480 the satellite constellation has a near 243 00:10:14,870 --> 00:10:11,920 polar orbit 244 00:10:16,150 --> 00:10:14,880 so areas of the world that are not 245 00:10:18,310 --> 00:10:16,160 currently 246 00:10:20,389 --> 00:10:18,320 covered by observational precipitation 247 00:10:22,550 --> 00:10:20,399 especially the oceans or many many many 248 00:10:24,790 --> 00:10:22,560 countries that don't have the radar 249 00:10:27,110 --> 00:10:24,800 network that we have in the u.s now 250 00:10:29,350 --> 00:10:27,120 we'll have the possibility of having 251 00:10:31,590 --> 00:10:29,360 near real time coverage of precipitation 252 00:10:35,910 --> 00:10:31,600 and severe precipitation issues 253 00:10:38,389 --> 00:10:35,920 the uh it also has a an advantage of 254 00:10:40,389 --> 00:10:38,399 enabling quantifying the overall water 255 00:10:42,230 --> 00:10:40,399 cycle 256 00:10:45,030 --> 00:10:42,240 by observing precipitation in areas that 257 00:10:47,190 --> 00:10:45,040 have not been observed so far 258 00:10:49,750 --> 00:10:47,200 they will be able to tell how much 259 00:10:53,110 --> 00:10:49,760 precipitation uh what intensity the 260 00:10:55,990 --> 00:10:53,120 precipitation is and how often the 261 00:10:58,310 --> 00:10:56,000 precipitation is happening and then 262 00:11:01,269 --> 00:10:58,320 use that to corroborate the predictions 263 00:11:02,710 --> 00:11:01,279 that the global climate change models 264 00:11:04,630 --> 00:11:02,720 are coming up with 265 00:11:07,350 --> 00:11:04,640 so the the uh 266 00:11:09,430 --> 00:11:07,360 the advantages are absolutely multiple 267 00:11:11,269 --> 00:11:09,440 and even in the us with all our network 268 00:11:17,590 --> 00:11:11,279 and our sensor we will be able to take 269 00:11:21,750 --> 00:11:19,990 and now how does that lead into this 270 00:11:23,430 --> 00:11:21,760 upcoming nasa mission that we have 271 00:11:25,829 --> 00:11:23,440 launching the global precipitation 272 00:11:27,670 --> 00:11:25,839 measurement mission or gpm 273 00:11:28,790 --> 00:11:27,680 yeah that's actually a perfect lead into 274 00:11:30,069 --> 00:11:28,800 gpm 275 00:11:32,389 --> 00:11:30,079 so the global 276 00:11:34,470 --> 00:11:32,399 precipitation measurement mission is an 277 00:11:35,910 --> 00:11:34,480 international mission satellite mission 278 00:11:38,630 --> 00:11:35,920 actually uh 279 00:11:40,710 --> 00:11:38,640 slated to launch the core satellite in 280 00:11:43,269 --> 00:11:40,720 february of next year 281 00:11:45,190 --> 00:11:43,279 and so the gpm mission is really 282 00:11:47,750 --> 00:11:45,200 designed to do the global energy and 283 00:11:50,710 --> 00:11:47,760 water cycle and to 284 00:11:53,350 --> 00:11:50,720 by virtue of our enhanced ability to 285 00:11:55,190 --> 00:11:53,360 measure precipitation in a global sense 286 00:11:57,509 --> 00:11:55,200 enable us to do a better job of 287 00:12:00,389 --> 00:11:57,519 predicting natural hazards like flooding 288 00:12:02,550 --> 00:12:00,399 so there's the water cycle aspect and 289 00:12:05,430 --> 00:12:02,560 importantly also a weather and climate 290 00:12:06,470 --> 00:12:05,440 aspect to gpm so the information that we 291 00:12:08,389 --> 00:12:06,480 collect 292 00:12:11,670 --> 00:12:08,399 from the satellite mission itself is 293 00:12:13,509 --> 00:12:11,680 used to improve our ability to do 294 00:12:15,910 --> 00:12:13,519 numerical weather prediction which is 295 00:12:18,310 --> 00:12:15,920 important to be able to sort of 296 00:12:19,269 --> 00:12:18,320 describe conditions upstream so that you 297 00:12:21,430 --> 00:12:19,279 do a better 298 00:12:22,870 --> 00:12:21,440 job of predicting downstream 299 00:12:25,190 --> 00:12:22,880 in an atmospheric sense when you're 300 00:12:28,230 --> 00:12:25,200 going to have heavy rain events and that 301 00:12:30,150 --> 00:12:28,240 and then also our ability to well our 302 00:12:31,509 --> 00:12:30,160 improved technology and instrumentation 303 00:12:34,150 --> 00:12:31,519 that will be 304 00:12:35,829 --> 00:12:34,160 on the satellite itself will enable us 305 00:12:38,550 --> 00:12:35,839 to do a better job of accurately 306 00:12:40,150 --> 00:12:38,560 measuring rainfall rates 307 00:12:42,470 --> 00:12:40,160 and of course this all goes back to 308 00:12:44,710 --> 00:12:42,480 societal applications and and our 309 00:12:46,230 --> 00:12:44,720 ability to take the information 310 00:12:48,790 --> 00:12:46,240 and better help 311 00:12:51,670 --> 00:12:48,800 decision makers and 312 00:12:52,870 --> 00:12:51,680 people that issue warnings and or 313 00:12:55,829 --> 00:12:52,880 decide whether or not they're going to 314 00:12:58,150 --> 00:12:55,839 irrigate their field today for example 315 00:13:00,150 --> 00:12:58,160 that's what gpm will uh 316 00:13:02,470 --> 00:13:00,160 the capability that gpm will provide us 317 00:13:03,829 --> 00:13:02,480 and and do so over sort of a more global 318 00:13:05,829 --> 00:13:03,839 scale um 319 00:13:09,190 --> 00:13:05,839 pedro talked about the issues of 320 00:13:11,910 --> 00:13:09,200 flooding and some statistics in terms of 321 00:13:13,750 --> 00:13:11,920 impacts in the united states and 322 00:13:15,990 --> 00:13:13,760 we do see though that the the largest 323 00:13:18,710 --> 00:13:16,000 impacts in flooding are really more out 324 00:13:21,110 --> 00:13:18,720 there in the developing world 325 00:13:22,790 --> 00:13:21,120 in particular you know tens of thousands 326 00:13:25,430 --> 00:13:22,800 of people annually 327 00:13:27,190 --> 00:13:25,440 uh lose their lives to flooding um 328 00:13:28,550 --> 00:13:27,200 the overwhelming majority of that being 329 00:13:31,670 --> 00:13:28,560 in the third world 330 00:13:34,069 --> 00:13:31,680 and um and it's also from a dollar a 331 00:13:36,150 --> 00:13:34,079 sort of a dollar a cost perspective much 332 00:13:38,230 --> 00:13:36,160 more much larger impact 333 00:13:40,150 --> 00:13:38,240 in developing nations 334 00:13:43,110 --> 00:13:40,160 mainly because i think really of the 335 00:13:44,230 --> 00:13:43,120 warning aspect and the ability to inform 336 00:13:46,389 --> 00:13:44,240 people ahead of time and when we're 337 00:13:48,550 --> 00:13:46,399 going to have flooding issues so 338 00:13:50,870 --> 00:13:48,560 gpm will help with some of that 339 00:13:52,470 --> 00:13:50,880 and i don't know if at this point you 340 00:13:54,629 --> 00:13:52,480 you want me to describe more about the 341 00:13:55,509 --> 00:13:54,639 mission itself um 342 00:13:57,590 --> 00:13:55,519 well 343 00:13:59,670 --> 00:13:57,600 actually i was wondering as part of 344 00:14:01,750 --> 00:13:59,680 talking about the mission itself gpm we 345 00:14:03,829 --> 00:14:01,760 said it's new but it's actually the next 346 00:14:05,990 --> 00:14:03,839 generation of a previous satellite right 347 00:14:07,910 --> 00:14:06,000 out there something called a trim the 348 00:14:10,870 --> 00:14:07,920 tropical rainfall measurement mission am 349 00:14:13,269 --> 00:14:10,880 i right that's correct actually gpm will 350 00:14:15,990 --> 00:14:13,279 uh significantly extend the capabilities 351 00:14:18,949 --> 00:14:16,000 that we developed with the trim mission 352 00:14:21,350 --> 00:14:18,959 the trim measurements involve 353 00:14:24,150 --> 00:14:21,360 both a precipitation radar a single 354 00:14:26,790 --> 00:14:24,160 frequency precipitation radar and 355 00:14:29,110 --> 00:14:26,800 an advanced multi-frequency radiometer 356 00:14:31,030 --> 00:14:29,120 and those things have worked great 357 00:14:32,949 --> 00:14:31,040 basically letting us see 358 00:14:34,710 --> 00:14:32,959 rainfall in the tropics 359 00:14:36,949 --> 00:14:34,720 and in fact a lot of those information 360 00:14:37,990 --> 00:14:36,959 are used in real time to improve for 361 00:14:40,550 --> 00:14:38,000 example 362 00:14:43,030 --> 00:14:40,560 tropical cyclone fixes so when the 363 00:14:45,030 --> 00:14:43,040 satellite flies over you get a really 364 00:14:47,509 --> 00:14:45,040 precise fix on the center of a tropical 365 00:14:48,629 --> 00:14:47,519 cyclone or even a developing tropical 366 00:14:51,509 --> 00:14:48,639 cyclone 367 00:14:53,189 --> 00:14:51,519 um the radar itself allows us to map the 368 00:14:54,870 --> 00:14:53,199 depth the three-dimensional depth of 369 00:14:56,710 --> 00:14:54,880 precipitation 370 00:14:58,310 --> 00:14:56,720 and from that we get some indication as 371 00:15:00,150 --> 00:14:58,320 to whether things are developing or 372 00:15:01,030 --> 00:15:00,160 intensifying even more 373 00:15:03,750 --> 00:15:01,040 uh 374 00:15:06,790 --> 00:15:03,760 in a tropical cyclone so gpm kind of 375 00:15:08,550 --> 00:15:06,800 follows on um the trend mission and uh 376 00:15:10,790 --> 00:15:08,560 and then extends it by virtue of the new 377 00:15:12,870 --> 00:15:10,800 technology and also the fact that now 378 00:15:15,750 --> 00:15:12,880 we're talking about a constellation of 379 00:15:17,430 --> 00:15:15,760 satellites and gpm so gpm the core 380 00:15:19,269 --> 00:15:17,440 satellite is one platform that we 381 00:15:21,990 --> 00:15:19,279 launched next february but there are 382 00:15:23,189 --> 00:15:22,000 actually already uh satellite platforms 383 00:15:25,350 --> 00:15:23,199 up there that will join the 384 00:15:28,310 --> 00:15:25,360 constellation of uh 385 00:15:30,710 --> 00:15:28,320 of the uh well that comprised the gpm 386 00:15:33,030 --> 00:15:30,720 constellation with the core satellite 387 00:15:35,430 --> 00:15:33,040 acting as the on orbit calibrator of 388 00:15:37,509 --> 00:15:35,440 that entire constellation and then we 389 00:15:39,829 --> 00:15:37,519 increase our sampling to like one to 390 00:15:41,910 --> 00:15:39,839 three hours for global precipitation 391 00:15:44,230 --> 00:15:41,920 maps compared to trim right now which 392 00:15:48,629 --> 00:15:44,240 gives us sampling in most locations on 393 00:15:51,829 --> 00:15:50,310 fantastic i just wanted to jump in and 394 00:15:53,430 --> 00:15:51,839 we're going to be seeing your questions 395 00:15:54,870 --> 00:15:53,440 that are coming in through youtube 396 00:15:57,030 --> 00:15:54,880 through google plus and also through 397 00:15:58,310 --> 00:15:57,040 twitter and in just a few minutes if 398 00:16:00,710 --> 00:15:58,320 you're following along i want to ask a 399 00:16:02,550 --> 00:16:00,720 question on twitter it's hashtag ifloods 400 00:16:04,870 --> 00:16:02,560 that's the letter i and the word floods 401 00:16:06,710 --> 00:16:04,880 with an s and after this hangout airs 402 00:16:08,389 --> 00:16:06,720 live it's going to be rebroadcast and 403 00:16:09,269 --> 00:16:08,399 archived on the goddard's youtube 404 00:16:10,949 --> 00:16:09,279 channel 405 00:16:12,949 --> 00:16:10,959 which is nasa explorer and we'll provide 406 00:16:14,550 --> 00:16:12,959 those links as well we'll also provide 407 00:16:15,990 --> 00:16:14,560 some links to all the different videos 408 00:16:17,749 --> 00:16:16,000 and things that we're showing throughout 409 00:16:20,310 --> 00:16:17,759 this hangout 410 00:16:23,030 --> 00:16:20,320 and joining us just right now we've got 411 00:16:25,670 --> 00:16:23,040 walt peterson who's with nasa goddard 412 00:16:27,430 --> 00:16:25,680 walt's flight facility and if watt looks 413 00:16:29,350 --> 00:16:27,440 a little darkly lit it's because he's 414 00:16:30,949 --> 00:16:29,360 sitting in a trailer out in the field 415 00:16:32,790 --> 00:16:30,959 doing a ground campaign for this new 416 00:16:35,110 --> 00:16:32,800 satellite that we're discussing 417 00:16:37,990 --> 00:16:35,120 that is going to hopefully give us 418 00:16:39,829 --> 00:16:38,000 really great insights into rainfall and 419 00:16:41,749 --> 00:16:39,839 be able to connect it back to floods 420 00:16:43,030 --> 00:16:41,759 there's a lot of flooding going on here 421 00:16:44,870 --> 00:16:43,040 on the east coast right now is the 422 00:16:47,030 --> 00:16:44,880 remnants of hurricane i'm sorry a 423 00:16:49,509 --> 00:16:47,040 tropical storm tropical storm andrea 424 00:16:50,870 --> 00:16:49,519 goes up and i know in europe in germany 425 00:16:53,189 --> 00:16:50,880 and eastern europe are having the worst 426 00:16:54,870 --> 00:16:53,199 flooding they've had in decades um so 427 00:16:56,790 --> 00:16:54,880 i'm going to give it back to walt talk a 428 00:16:57,910 --> 00:16:56,800 little bit more about this mission and 429 00:16:59,189 --> 00:16:57,920 how 430 00:17:01,749 --> 00:16:59,199 the details that it's going to be 431 00:17:05,029 --> 00:17:01,759 collecting will help feed into for flood 432 00:17:06,630 --> 00:17:05,039 forecast predictions 433 00:17:09,829 --> 00:17:06,640 oh we were you going to hand that back 434 00:17:11,189 --> 00:17:09,839 to me or to pedro or maybe vtec 435 00:17:12,470 --> 00:17:11,199 why don't you start walton then we'll go 436 00:17:13,350 --> 00:17:12,480 down the line 437 00:17:14,949 --> 00:17:13,360 okay 438 00:17:16,789 --> 00:17:14,959 so the information that the mission 439 00:17:19,029 --> 00:17:16,799 collects you know the fundamental 440 00:17:20,789 --> 00:17:19,039 measurement is the rainfall rate the 441 00:17:23,429 --> 00:17:20,799 rainfall rate is kind of a fundamental 442 00:17:25,429 --> 00:17:23,439 input into a flood forecast model 443 00:17:28,630 --> 00:17:25,439 the flood forecast model uses other 444 00:17:29,990 --> 00:17:28,640 information as well as the rainfall rate 445 00:17:32,310 --> 00:17:30,000 things like the 446 00:17:34,710 --> 00:17:32,320 state of the ground um you know how 447 00:17:36,789 --> 00:17:34,720 moist the ground is which determines how 448 00:17:37,909 --> 00:17:36,799 much runoff or filtration you have and 449 00:17:40,390 --> 00:17:37,919 actually 450 00:17:43,110 --> 00:17:40,400 uh possibly uh vtec 451 00:17:46,230 --> 00:17:43,120 might want to to chime in on that aspect 452 00:17:50,310 --> 00:17:46,240 of things being a hydrologist and flood 453 00:17:53,909 --> 00:17:51,270 yeah 454 00:17:55,750 --> 00:17:53,919 let me let me uh continue 455 00:17:59,750 --> 00:17:55,760 um so 456 00:18:01,350 --> 00:17:59,760 the the the big issue here is that 457 00:18:02,870 --> 00:18:01,360 although 458 00:18:05,430 --> 00:18:02,880 gpm 459 00:18:07,190 --> 00:18:05,440 satellites will provide 460 00:18:10,390 --> 00:18:07,200 estimates of 461 00:18:13,830 --> 00:18:11,190 these 462 00:18:16,710 --> 00:18:13,840 estimates are just you know that 463 00:18:19,750 --> 00:18:16,720 estimates and so so then there is a 464 00:18:22,230 --> 00:18:19,760 question how good are they and 465 00:18:25,110 --> 00:18:22,240 what kind of capabilities 466 00:18:26,150 --> 00:18:25,120 will we have with 467 00:18:28,549 --> 00:18:26,160 using 468 00:18:32,070 --> 00:18:28,559 then hydrologic you know models and that 469 00:18:34,950 --> 00:18:32,080 gpm rainfall input into 470 00:18:36,470 --> 00:18:34,960 prediction of flats so um because as we 471 00:18:41,190 --> 00:18:36,480 all know 472 00:18:46,070 --> 00:18:44,070 predicting what nature will do is not 473 00:18:47,990 --> 00:18:46,080 always you know that easy quite 474 00:18:51,430 --> 00:18:48,000 challenging in fact so 475 00:18:54,710 --> 00:18:51,440 um so one big you know goal for the 476 00:18:58,310 --> 00:18:54,720 research associated with the gpm is to 477 00:19:02,310 --> 00:18:58,320 figure out at what scale 478 00:19:05,830 --> 00:19:02,320 the gpm rainfall estimates or maps 479 00:19:08,230 --> 00:19:05,840 will be appropriate to make skillful 480 00:19:11,830 --> 00:19:08,240 predictions of you know floods and other 481 00:19:13,029 --> 00:19:11,840 natural rainfall induced hazards such as 482 00:19:15,510 --> 00:19:13,039 landslides 483 00:19:18,789 --> 00:19:15,520 um so so this is this is a big goal and 484 00:19:20,950 --> 00:19:18,799 that's why it is important to have a 485 00:19:22,230 --> 00:19:20,960 good reference you know data set on 486 00:19:25,029 --> 00:19:22,240 rainfall 487 00:19:27,669 --> 00:19:25,039 all the way from tiny little you know 488 00:19:30,390 --> 00:19:27,679 scales at a single you know hill slope 489 00:19:32,870 --> 00:19:30,400 all the way to the scale of uh several 490 00:19:34,950 --> 00:19:32,880 thousand you know square kilometers and 491 00:19:37,430 --> 00:19:34,960 and this is what we've got you know here 492 00:19:40,070 --> 00:19:37,440 in iowa we have very well instrumented 493 00:19:41,909 --> 00:19:40,080 you know watersheds we have 494 00:19:43,350 --> 00:19:41,919 a plethora of 495 00:19:46,230 --> 00:19:43,360 instruments 496 00:19:48,310 --> 00:19:46,240 and not only nasa riders but 497 00:19:50,070 --> 00:19:48,320 other radars 498 00:19:53,350 --> 00:19:50,080 that are operated by the national 499 00:19:56,230 --> 00:19:53,360 weather service some additional research 500 00:19:58,390 --> 00:19:56,240 you know radars um a bunch of other 501 00:19:59,510 --> 00:19:58,400 instruments 502 00:20:02,230 --> 00:19:59,520 measuring 503 00:20:03,990 --> 00:20:02,240 not only rainfall but also stream flow 504 00:20:06,789 --> 00:20:04,000 and soil moisture 505 00:20:07,669 --> 00:20:06,799 and it is with all these ingredients 506 00:20:11,270 --> 00:20:07,679 then 507 00:20:13,590 --> 00:20:11,280 um hydrology researchers uh who develop 508 00:20:15,830 --> 00:20:13,600 and test hydrologic you know models will 509 00:20:16,789 --> 00:20:15,840 be able to to answer you know this 510 00:20:19,430 --> 00:20:16,799 question 511 00:20:23,029 --> 00:20:19,440 um so for example you know right now you 512 00:20:25,990 --> 00:20:23,039 are looking at this you know graphic of 513 00:20:28,310 --> 00:20:26,000 how water travels through a watershed so 514 00:20:30,950 --> 00:20:28,320 we see here um 515 00:20:33,430 --> 00:20:30,960 the sida river basin and 516 00:20:35,110 --> 00:20:33,440 to the north the larger one and the iowa 517 00:20:35,909 --> 00:20:35,120 river basin 518 00:20:38,950 --> 00:20:35,919 and 519 00:20:41,350 --> 00:20:38,960 the the zone of the travel time if you 520 00:20:43,190 --> 00:20:41,360 will so it takes if you count the 521 00:20:46,310 --> 00:20:43,200 different you know colors 522 00:20:48,870 --> 00:20:46,320 it takes about a week eight days for 523 00:20:50,870 --> 00:20:48,880 rainfall to travel across you know this 524 00:20:54,070 --> 00:20:50,880 this watershed 525 00:20:59,830 --> 00:20:56,710 with all this information that we have 526 00:21:02,630 --> 00:20:59,840 been collecting here in iowa uh then a 527 00:21:03,750 --> 00:21:02,640 much larger community 528 00:21:07,190 --> 00:21:03,760 will 529 00:21:08,390 --> 00:21:07,200 analyze you know the data and 530 00:21:09,190 --> 00:21:08,400 improve 531 00:21:14,230 --> 00:21:09,200 the 532 00:21:18,789 --> 00:21:17,590 i do have a question for um pedro walt 533 00:21:21,830 --> 00:21:18,799 and v-tech 534 00:21:23,990 --> 00:21:21,840 uh you guys are talking about the global 535 00:21:25,270 --> 00:21:24,000 scale and what this will mean for global 536 00:21:26,950 --> 00:21:25,280 flood prediction but you guys are 537 00:21:28,630 --> 00:21:26,960 starting on a smaller scale in iowa 538 00:21:31,430 --> 00:21:28,640 we've been talking about that can you 539 00:21:33,750 --> 00:21:31,440 guys go uh go into some detail of the 540 00:21:36,710 --> 00:21:33,760 actual components you guys are using the 541 00:21:38,870 --> 00:21:36,720 rain gauges um and how you're how you're 542 00:21:40,549 --> 00:21:38,880 using all that information ground truth 543 00:21:43,270 --> 00:21:40,559 versus what you are seeing on the 544 00:21:45,669 --> 00:21:43,280 satellites right now 545 00:21:49,830 --> 00:21:45,679 right um so 546 00:21:51,830 --> 00:21:49,840 the idea here is that um you know 547 00:21:54,230 --> 00:21:51,840 we're proclaiming that we're going to 548 00:21:56,710 --> 00:21:54,240 make these measurements globally and of 549 00:21:59,510 --> 00:21:56,720 course um that also means locally by 550 00:22:02,070 --> 00:21:59,520 implication um the question is how 551 00:22:03,750 --> 00:22:02,080 accurate are those measurements and uh 552 00:22:05,510 --> 00:22:03,760 and then going beyond how accurate are 553 00:22:06,870 --> 00:22:05,520 those measurements if they're not that 554 00:22:09,350 --> 00:22:06,880 accurate how do we make them better how 555 00:22:11,430 --> 00:22:09,360 do we improve them um so we do field 556 00:22:14,070 --> 00:22:11,440 campaigns like what we're doing in iowa 557 00:22:16,149 --> 00:22:14,080 right now and and vtec discussed um a 558 00:22:18,149 --> 00:22:16,159 bit of uh about the instrumentation 559 00:22:20,149 --> 00:22:18,159 there but the idea is to really connect 560 00:22:21,909 --> 00:22:20,159 what we're measuring at the ground to 561 00:22:23,110 --> 00:22:21,919 what we're uh what we're seeing in from 562 00:22:25,750 --> 00:22:23,120 space 563 00:22:27,510 --> 00:22:25,760 and uh so here in iowa we've deployed a 564 00:22:30,149 --> 00:22:27,520 bunch of instrumentation in addition to 565 00:22:32,149 --> 00:22:30,159 what the iowa thought center and other 566 00:22:35,190 --> 00:22:32,159 agencies like noaa the national weather 567 00:22:36,710 --> 00:22:35,200 service the u.s geological survey etc 568 00:22:38,789 --> 00:22:36,720 already have in place 569 00:22:40,230 --> 00:22:38,799 and those include things like like rain 570 00:22:42,710 --> 00:22:40,240 gauges and there's an image right now 571 00:22:44,789 --> 00:22:42,720 that you see that has um those are dual 572 00:22:46,310 --> 00:22:44,799 rain gauge platforms that we're using 573 00:22:48,310 --> 00:22:46,320 we've deployed 574 00:22:50,710 --> 00:22:48,320 a large number of those actually in 575 00:22:52,549 --> 00:22:50,720 networks around iowa and specific river 576 00:22:54,950 --> 00:22:52,559 basins like the turkey river basin up to 577 00:22:57,029 --> 00:22:54,960 the northeast on the south fork basin 578 00:23:00,310 --> 00:22:57,039 which is part of the iowa 579 00:23:02,870 --> 00:23:00,320 basin to the west the idea there is to 580 00:23:04,789 --> 00:23:02,880 use these gauge systems with 581 00:23:06,710 --> 00:23:04,799 also attached 582 00:23:09,990 --> 00:23:06,720 soil moisture probes and temperature 583 00:23:11,669 --> 00:23:10,000 probes to connect the rainfall at a very 584 00:23:13,750 --> 00:23:11,679 uh local scale 585 00:23:16,870 --> 00:23:13,760 or or sort of use it as a calibration 586 00:23:20,470 --> 00:23:16,880 source if you like at a local scale 587 00:23:22,710 --> 00:23:20,480 to uh compare to a broader measurement 588 00:23:24,630 --> 00:23:22,720 which we which we do with radars and so 589 00:23:27,430 --> 00:23:24,640 there's an example of one of the 590 00:23:29,590 --> 00:23:27,440 university of iowa expo radars so this 591 00:23:31,669 --> 00:23:29,600 is one of the radars that we have in the 592 00:23:34,549 --> 00:23:31,679 current network and then 593 00:23:37,430 --> 00:23:34,559 um the nasa radars that we've deployed 594 00:23:39,029 --> 00:23:37,440 include the nasa and pole raider and i 595 00:23:42,149 --> 00:23:39,039 don't know we'll be able to get the 596 00:23:43,510 --> 00:23:42,159 graphic up there or not of those radars 597 00:23:45,590 --> 00:23:43,520 but either way 598 00:23:48,230 --> 00:23:45,600 we use the rain gauges as kind of this 599 00:23:50,070 --> 00:23:48,240 point measurement source that we take as 600 00:23:51,830 --> 00:23:50,080 well almost the gold standard when we 601 00:23:53,830 --> 00:23:51,840 have those two rain gauges together then 602 00:23:55,990 --> 00:23:53,840 we know that we're getting an accurate 603 00:23:57,750 --> 00:23:56,000 measurement of the 604 00:23:59,990 --> 00:23:57,760 of the of the rain at the rain gauge 605 00:24:02,390 --> 00:24:00,000 location and then we scale up with the 606 00:24:05,190 --> 00:24:02,400 radar so uh for example the end pole 607 00:24:06,390 --> 00:24:05,200 radar which is shown there 608 00:24:08,789 --> 00:24:06,400 i don't know if the movie will work 609 00:24:11,590 --> 00:24:08,799 there but we we use the radars like 610 00:24:13,990 --> 00:24:11,600 endpoint radar um in the network to scan 611 00:24:15,830 --> 00:24:14,000 on a much broader domain so the impul 612 00:24:18,710 --> 00:24:15,840 radar is looking out at scales on the 613 00:24:19,909 --> 00:24:18,720 order of 100 miles or so 614 00:24:23,029 --> 00:24:19,919 to map 615 00:24:24,630 --> 00:24:23,039 the rainfall near the surface 616 00:24:27,110 --> 00:24:24,640 on a scale of say 617 00:24:29,430 --> 00:24:27,120 one kilometer or so 618 00:24:31,430 --> 00:24:29,440 and we use that measurement 619 00:24:33,590 --> 00:24:31,440 we use the rain gauges with some other 620 00:24:35,590 --> 00:24:33,600 measurements we're making individual for 621 00:24:38,390 --> 00:24:35,600 example raindrops 622 00:24:40,710 --> 00:24:38,400 to reference the radar so here this is 623 00:24:43,110 --> 00:24:40,720 an example of the radar scanning in what 624 00:24:45,190 --> 00:24:43,120 we call a ppi mode so here's how we 625 00:24:46,870 --> 00:24:45,200 would map it in the horizontal 626 00:24:48,470 --> 00:24:46,880 by spinning the radar around on the 627 00:24:50,710 --> 00:24:48,480 horizontal plane 628 00:24:52,549 --> 00:24:50,720 to map the rainfall 629 00:24:54,390 --> 00:24:52,559 we make a rainfall estimate from this 630 00:24:56,070 --> 00:24:54,400 radar this is a dual polarimetric radar 631 00:24:57,510 --> 00:24:56,080 which makes fairly accurate measurements 632 00:25:00,310 --> 00:24:57,520 of rain 633 00:25:02,870 --> 00:25:00,320 on the order of 10 to 20 for example on 634 00:25:05,590 --> 00:25:02,880 an hourly accumulation basis then we 635 00:25:08,149 --> 00:25:05,600 take those estimates as a reference 636 00:25:11,029 --> 00:25:08,159 um and we run them into a hydrologic 637 00:25:12,310 --> 00:25:11,039 model that for example vtec or pedro 638 00:25:14,710 --> 00:25:12,320 would run 639 00:25:16,230 --> 00:25:14,720 and that gives you kind of a stream flow 640 00:25:19,669 --> 00:25:16,240 an estimate of the stream flow or an 641 00:25:23,830 --> 00:25:21,909 it's called that a reference screen flow 642 00:25:25,750 --> 00:25:23,840 based on our reference rainfall estimate 643 00:25:26,630 --> 00:25:25,760 that we assume to be accurate within 644 00:25:31,669 --> 00:25:26,640 some 645 00:25:33,350 --> 00:25:31,679 satellites that are currently overflying 646 00:25:35,669 --> 00:25:33,360 the site you know every day several 647 00:25:37,590 --> 00:25:35,679 times a day several satellites 648 00:25:39,269 --> 00:25:37,600 and and from those measurements then we 649 00:25:40,870 --> 00:25:39,279 can connect the accuracy with what we 650 00:25:43,669 --> 00:25:40,880 get at the ground what we're seeing from 651 00:25:46,230 --> 00:25:43,679 space and say all right um you know well 652 00:25:47,669 --> 00:25:46,240 we're off by maybe 50 653 00:25:48,950 --> 00:25:47,679 from space we don't we don't know that 654 00:25:51,269 --> 00:25:48,960 yet of course we haven't finished the 655 00:25:53,269 --> 00:25:51,279 experiment but uh but if we're off so 656 00:25:55,430 --> 00:25:53,279 much we might be able to estimate you 657 00:25:57,590 --> 00:25:55,440 know sort of why or yes and why we're 658 00:26:00,070 --> 00:25:57,600 off so much and here's an example of a 659 00:26:01,350 --> 00:26:00,080 graphic that shows uh in the top 660 00:26:03,510 --> 00:26:01,360 um a 661 00:26:05,669 --> 00:26:03,520 satellite estimate from 662 00:26:08,549 --> 00:26:05,679 the case we sampled actually on may the 663 00:26:11,029 --> 00:26:08,559 20th uh during the iflitz field campaign 664 00:26:12,789 --> 00:26:11,039 compared to the ground estimate 665 00:26:14,390 --> 00:26:12,799 provided by the iowa flood center and 666 00:26:16,789 --> 00:26:14,400 you can see that you know the 667 00:26:19,350 --> 00:26:16,799 comparisons are you know broadly 668 00:26:21,029 --> 00:26:19,360 consistent but but in fact there's a big 669 00:26:22,470 --> 00:26:21,039 difference in resolution between what 670 00:26:24,230 --> 00:26:22,480 the satellite sees and what we measure 671 00:26:26,470 --> 00:26:24,240 at the ground and then there's also some 672 00:26:28,310 --> 00:26:26,480 some basic differences in amounts 673 00:26:30,870 --> 00:26:28,320 that indicate you know hey we can do 674 00:26:33,269 --> 00:26:30,880 better from space and so as we make the 675 00:26:36,149 --> 00:26:33,279 measurement uh at the ground here with 676 00:26:37,510 --> 00:26:36,159 the radars for example if we interrogate 677 00:26:40,390 --> 00:26:37,520 the storms a little bit more with the 678 00:26:41,909 --> 00:26:40,400 radar sampling in the vertical plane 679 00:26:43,990 --> 00:26:41,919 we start to learn about how the storms 680 00:26:45,350 --> 00:26:44,000 are are constructed 681 00:26:46,710 --> 00:26:45,360 in the vertical and that's very 682 00:26:48,070 --> 00:26:46,720 important from the perspective of 683 00:26:49,590 --> 00:26:48,080 satellite because the satellite is 684 00:26:52,390 --> 00:26:49,600 looking downward at the surface of the 685 00:26:53,669 --> 00:26:52,400 earth so what it's seeing is uh is the 686 00:26:55,909 --> 00:26:53,679 surface of the earth and then everything 687 00:26:57,430 --> 00:26:55,919 in the column that's between it and what 688 00:26:59,669 --> 00:26:57,440 the satellite measures and so with the 689 00:27:02,230 --> 00:26:59,679 radars with research radars we do a lot 690 00:27:04,549 --> 00:27:02,240 of work looking at the clouds a great 691 00:27:06,390 --> 00:27:04,559 bit of detail on the vertical to 692 00:27:08,310 --> 00:27:06,400 to learn about what what the what the 693 00:27:10,710 --> 00:27:08,320 precipitation is constructed of whether 694 00:27:12,710 --> 00:27:10,720 it's ice or rain and how the process 695 00:27:14,470 --> 00:27:12,720 works to make the rain 696 00:27:16,230 --> 00:27:14,480 and a lot of that contributes to some of 697 00:27:18,390 --> 00:27:16,240 the differences that you see in in the 698 00:27:20,390 --> 00:27:18,400 rainfall maps there and so that's what 699 00:27:21,750 --> 00:27:20,400 we're trying to achieve here in if you 700 00:27:23,190 --> 00:27:21,760 connect everything that we see at the 701 00:27:25,190 --> 00:27:23,200 ground which you consider you know 702 00:27:27,350 --> 00:27:25,200 basically that's reality to what the 703 00:27:28,310 --> 00:27:27,360 satellite is inferring is going on from 704 00:27:29,750 --> 00:27:28,320 space 705 00:27:31,190 --> 00:27:29,760 you take all that information and put it 706 00:27:33,909 --> 00:27:31,200 together and that should help us really 707 00:27:36,549 --> 00:27:33,919 improve our ability to use those 708 00:27:39,510 --> 00:27:36,559 spaceborne estimates worldwide so 709 00:27:41,029 --> 00:27:39,520 it's the global local application but uh 710 00:27:43,029 --> 00:27:41,039 or the local study by global 711 00:27:44,950 --> 00:27:43,039 applications so we truth ourselves here 712 00:27:47,430 --> 00:27:44,960 in iowa and then hopefully do a much 713 00:27:49,350 --> 00:27:47,440 better job globally especially in 714 00:27:51,430 --> 00:27:49,360 countries that don't have access to all 715 00:27:54,789 --> 00:27:51,440 the resources that you know that we do 716 00:27:58,310 --> 00:27:56,470 excellent um that leads really well into 717 00:28:00,950 --> 00:27:58,320 one of the first questions we got um 718 00:28:02,950 --> 00:28:00,960 from online if anyone's watching please 719 00:28:04,870 --> 00:28:02,960 put questions in youtube comments or on 720 00:28:07,750 --> 00:28:04,880 the google plus page or go ahead and use 721 00:28:09,830 --> 00:28:07,760 the hashtag ifloods that's the letter i 722 00:28:12,230 --> 00:28:09,840 the word flood with an s 723 00:28:14,230 --> 00:28:12,240 and um the question i've got right here 724 00:28:17,190 --> 00:28:14,240 it's by anil and it came in through 725 00:28:19,750 --> 00:28:17,200 youtube and are you going to be her 726 00:28:21,830 --> 00:28:19,760 question is does the flood data get fed 727 00:28:24,070 --> 00:28:21,840 into a public information system or is 728 00:28:26,149 --> 00:28:24,080 it given to weather channels i know what 729 00:28:27,909 --> 00:28:26,159 you talked about this a little bit are 730 00:28:29,909 --> 00:28:27,919 you going to be setting up a whole new 731 00:28:31,269 --> 00:28:29,919 system for flooding or is it going to be 732 00:28:34,230 --> 00:28:31,279 feeding into 733 00:28:35,590 --> 00:28:34,240 to places just for scientists to see or 734 00:28:37,510 --> 00:28:35,600 are you going to be feeding it to like 735 00:28:39,029 --> 00:28:37,520 people like our guest maria larosa from 736 00:28:41,269 --> 00:28:39,039 the weather channel so they can go ahead 737 00:28:42,950 --> 00:28:41,279 and give people um straight out flood 738 00:28:45,430 --> 00:28:42,960 predictions 739 00:28:47,990 --> 00:28:45,440 right so so all of the information 740 00:28:50,070 --> 00:28:48,000 that's collected by analysis by the by 741 00:28:53,269 --> 00:28:50,080 the gpm satellite actually will feed 742 00:28:55,190 --> 00:28:53,279 into um will feed into our national uh 743 00:28:58,149 --> 00:28:55,200 flood prediction systems to folks like 744 00:28:59,990 --> 00:28:58,159 pedro and vtec actually those data are 745 00:29:02,230 --> 00:29:00,000 available or will be publicly available 746 00:29:04,950 --> 00:29:02,240 to just about anybody that wants them 747 00:29:07,110 --> 00:29:04,960 online there's about a myers standing is 748 00:29:08,549 --> 00:29:07,120 about a one hour lag roughly between the 749 00:29:10,470 --> 00:29:08,559 time that they are collected and 750 00:29:12,389 --> 00:29:10,480 products are made and distributed 751 00:29:14,549 --> 00:29:12,399 and then they would get shifted off to 752 00:29:16,710 --> 00:29:14,559 um to uh 753 00:29:18,389 --> 00:29:16,720 uh folks like pedro for for putting into 754 00:29:20,149 --> 00:29:18,399 their models and i don't know if 755 00:29:21,750 --> 00:29:20,159 maybe pedro uh 756 00:29:23,750 --> 00:29:21,760 would comment on how that would work 757 00:29:25,750 --> 00:29:23,760 once the data was handed off to 758 00:29:27,750 --> 00:29:25,760 noah 759 00:29:28,470 --> 00:29:27,760 yes 760 00:29:31,430 --> 00:29:28,480 the 761 00:29:34,310 --> 00:29:31,440 right now we get information from 762 00:29:36,950 --> 00:29:34,320 our network operators from rain gauges 763 00:29:38,710 --> 00:29:36,960 on the ground that are operated soon by 764 00:29:41,430 --> 00:29:38,720 us but the majority are operated by the 765 00:29:43,029 --> 00:29:41,440 united states geological survey shown by 766 00:29:45,830 --> 00:29:43,039 the core of engineers 767 00:29:47,590 --> 00:29:45,840 and so on by other federal state and 768 00:29:49,909 --> 00:29:47,600 municipal agencies that share that 769 00:29:53,190 --> 00:29:49,919 information with us we also have a 770 00:29:55,590 --> 00:29:53,200 network of cooperative observers that 771 00:29:57,110 --> 00:29:55,600 take daily precipitation data and send 772 00:29:59,830 --> 00:29:57,120 that information to us that's part of 773 00:30:02,070 --> 00:29:59,840 the ground validation for not only the 774 00:30:04,950 --> 00:30:02,080 uh satellite but also for our own radars 775 00:30:08,630 --> 00:30:04,960 and our systems once we get information 776 00:30:10,710 --> 00:30:08,640 from gpm that information is merged with 777 00:30:12,870 --> 00:30:10,720 the rest of the of the observations that 778 00:30:15,190 --> 00:30:12,880 we have from the ground and from the our 779 00:30:17,430 --> 00:30:15,200 network already into a single coherent 780 00:30:19,590 --> 00:30:17,440 product in what we call multi-sensor 781 00:30:21,430 --> 00:30:19,600 precipitation estimation and there are 782 00:30:23,430 --> 00:30:21,440 several 783 00:30:25,190 --> 00:30:23,440 versions of it one is being developed by 784 00:30:27,990 --> 00:30:25,200 the national severe storm laboratory in 785 00:30:30,470 --> 00:30:28,000 norman oklahoma that takes precipitation 786 00:30:33,029 --> 00:30:30,480 from satellites merged with uh with the 787 00:30:34,070 --> 00:30:33,039 with the raiders and so on 788 00:30:37,430 --> 00:30:34,080 that 789 00:30:39,669 --> 00:30:37,440 having one hour lag is really not a big 790 00:30:42,230 --> 00:30:39,679 deal for us we have we issue our 791 00:30:43,990 --> 00:30:42,240 precipitation forecasts every six hours 792 00:30:45,430 --> 00:30:44,000 during flooding condition we may issue 793 00:30:48,710 --> 00:30:45,440 more of them depending on the 794 00:30:50,630 --> 00:30:48,720 circumstances and so the one hour just 795 00:30:52,630 --> 00:30:50,640 fits perfectly well within the time 796 00:30:55,269 --> 00:30:52,640 frame that we have to to get our 797 00:30:56,710 --> 00:30:55,279 forecasts out so 798 00:30:58,389 --> 00:30:56,720 again 799 00:31:00,310 --> 00:30:58,399 filling the gaps 800 00:31:02,389 --> 00:31:00,320 having information that before the 801 00:31:03,190 --> 00:31:02,399 saturday we are not able to get because 802 00:31:05,990 --> 00:31:03,200 of the 803 00:31:07,990 --> 00:31:06,000 lack of courage by the raiders by 804 00:31:10,070 --> 00:31:08,000 mountains being on the way and obscuring 805 00:31:11,909 --> 00:31:10,080 parts of the radar being 806 00:31:16,070 --> 00:31:11,919 it is most welcome for for us to improve 807 00:31:19,990 --> 00:31:18,389 great um just reminding everybody i'm 808 00:31:21,190 --> 00:31:20,000 aries keck i'm here at nasa goddard 809 00:31:22,710 --> 00:31:21,200 space flight center in greenville 810 00:31:24,950 --> 00:31:22,720 maryland and we're talking about floods 811 00:31:26,630 --> 00:31:24,960 and flood prediction with our panel of 812 00:31:28,549 --> 00:31:26,640 scientists and maria larosa from the 813 00:31:30,310 --> 00:31:28,559 weather channel um you can send us 814 00:31:32,470 --> 00:31:30,320 questions through youtube comments on 815 00:31:34,950 --> 00:31:32,480 twitter at hashtag ifloods that's the 816 00:31:36,549 --> 00:31:34,960 letter i floods with an s or on the 817 00:31:39,350 --> 00:31:36,559 google plus hangout 818 00:31:41,990 --> 00:31:39,360 we got a question here from uh youtube 819 00:31:42,950 --> 00:31:42,000 comments uh gt stomach um 820 00:31:46,389 --> 00:31:42,960 asked 821 00:31:48,950 --> 00:31:46,399 why is gpm not geosynchronous and what 822 00:31:52,389 --> 00:31:48,960 advantage does this give it um vtec i 823 00:31:54,470 --> 00:31:52,399 know that your uh your specialty is 824 00:31:55,990 --> 00:31:54,480 using uh precipitation radar and 825 00:31:58,149 --> 00:31:56,000 satellites could you answer that 826 00:32:00,630 --> 00:31:58,159 question and first remind people who may 827 00:32:05,269 --> 00:32:00,640 not be uh you know scientists what we 828 00:32:08,230 --> 00:32:06,070 yes 829 00:32:10,870 --> 00:32:08,240 well this would be a very good question 830 00:32:12,230 --> 00:32:10,880 for forward but i'll you know give it 831 00:32:14,710 --> 00:32:12,240 you know a shot 832 00:32:19,509 --> 00:32:14,720 um so uh 833 00:32:22,149 --> 00:32:19,519 different uh satellite platforms uh are 834 00:32:23,909 --> 00:32:22,159 at you know different you know distance 835 00:32:27,990 --> 00:32:23,919 from from the earth 836 00:32:29,990 --> 00:32:28,000 and the sensors that they have on board 837 00:32:34,310 --> 00:32:30,000 operate at different you know 838 00:32:35,190 --> 00:32:34,320 frequencies um and then the resolution 839 00:32:37,110 --> 00:32:35,200 of 840 00:32:39,669 --> 00:32:37,120 data collected 841 00:32:42,230 --> 00:32:39,679 and of course we are interested in 842 00:32:44,710 --> 00:32:42,240 in the resolution near the earth you 843 00:32:47,430 --> 00:32:44,720 know surface uh depends on those two 844 00:32:49,350 --> 00:32:47,440 factors you know how how far you are or 845 00:32:52,549 --> 00:32:49,360 how high in this case 846 00:32:54,789 --> 00:32:52,559 and what exactly is the the frequency 847 00:32:57,430 --> 00:32:54,799 um that that you are 848 00:32:58,870 --> 00:32:57,440 listening you know to so to speak 849 00:32:59,750 --> 00:32:58,880 um so 850 00:33:01,990 --> 00:32:59,760 so 851 00:33:04,789 --> 00:33:02,000 but there is a another you know factor 852 00:33:07,509 --> 00:33:04,799 and depending on that you know 853 00:33:10,870 --> 00:33:07,519 frequency that your sensor operates 854 00:33:13,590 --> 00:33:10,880 uh you see different you know things and 855 00:33:16,230 --> 00:33:13,600 so so for example uh 856 00:33:18,549 --> 00:33:16,240 if you are operating at the 857 00:33:22,149 --> 00:33:18,559 visible light you know frequency well 858 00:33:23,990 --> 00:33:22,159 you see what we see with our own eyes so 859 00:33:25,990 --> 00:33:24,000 you see for example that there are you 860 00:33:27,110 --> 00:33:26,000 know clouds you know there but you do 861 00:33:29,990 --> 00:33:27,120 not see 862 00:33:31,990 --> 00:33:30,000 what is below the clouds and so 863 00:33:34,470 --> 00:33:32,000 now if you are 864 00:33:37,110 --> 00:33:34,480 working at another you know frequency 865 00:33:38,950 --> 00:33:37,120 that the the infrared frequencies so we 866 00:33:40,549 --> 00:33:38,960 know that that is 867 00:33:42,950 --> 00:33:40,559 um 868 00:33:45,590 --> 00:33:42,960 that the signal corresponds to to the 869 00:33:47,669 --> 00:33:45,600 temperature so now if you are looking 870 00:33:49,909 --> 00:33:47,679 with such a sensor 871 00:33:52,389 --> 00:33:49,919 at the cloud systems you can tell you 872 00:33:55,430 --> 00:33:52,399 know a little bit about the 873 00:33:58,070 --> 00:33:55,440 temperature of the cloud tops so again 874 00:34:00,549 --> 00:33:58,080 that gives you some information about 875 00:34:03,909 --> 00:34:00,559 how high the clouds are and therefore 876 00:34:06,470 --> 00:34:03,919 how vigorous are the processes below the 877 00:34:08,869 --> 00:34:06,480 clouds so that may give you some you 878 00:34:10,710 --> 00:34:08,879 know hint you know regarding the the 879 00:34:14,069 --> 00:34:10,720 possible amount of rainfall that is 880 00:34:16,869 --> 00:34:14,079 below the clouds uh but but you don't 881 00:34:19,510 --> 00:34:16,879 really know that you know very well uh 882 00:34:21,990 --> 00:34:19,520 so so then 883 00:34:24,230 --> 00:34:22,000 there is another uh range of frequencies 884 00:34:27,990 --> 00:34:24,240 that the microwave frequencies that 885 00:34:28,790 --> 00:34:28,000 correspond to the signal that is emitted 886 00:34:32,869 --> 00:34:28,800 by 887 00:34:35,990 --> 00:34:32,879 uh liquid water or or or ice and and 888 00:34:37,510 --> 00:34:36,000 so so now you are really below you know 889 00:34:39,990 --> 00:34:37,520 the clouds 890 00:34:43,190 --> 00:34:40,000 but because of that you know frequency 891 00:34:45,109 --> 00:34:43,200 if you were in a geostationary satellite 892 00:34:47,349 --> 00:34:45,119 your resolution would be extremely you 893 00:34:48,629 --> 00:34:47,359 know poor so you want to get closer you 894 00:34:51,030 --> 00:34:48,639 know to 895 00:34:53,190 --> 00:34:51,040 to the earth you know surface to have 896 00:34:55,750 --> 00:34:53,200 you know decent resolution like 897 00:34:58,710 --> 00:34:55,760 you know few few kilometers you know on 898 00:35:00,470 --> 00:34:58,720 the side so so those are 899 00:35:02,550 --> 00:35:00,480 the interplay of all those you know 900 00:35:04,390 --> 00:35:02,560 factors you know determines you know the 901 00:35:07,910 --> 00:35:04,400 choice for the 902 00:35:09,750 --> 00:35:07,920 um for the location of the satellite and 903 00:35:12,550 --> 00:35:09,760 but but here i would 904 00:35:15,670 --> 00:35:12,560 like to add that 905 00:35:18,390 --> 00:35:15,680 uh we still have a geostationary you 906 00:35:20,790 --> 00:35:18,400 know satellites up there and it is the 907 00:35:22,390 --> 00:35:20,800 combination of the data from 908 00:35:25,430 --> 00:35:22,400 uh all these 909 00:35:28,870 --> 00:35:25,440 sensors that makes for the best you know 910 00:35:33,510 --> 00:35:28,880 possible uh rainfall mapping so i i hope 911 00:35:37,750 --> 00:35:35,910 uh i have another question uh i think 912 00:35:39,589 --> 00:35:37,760 one of the great things about being a 913 00:35:42,230 --> 00:35:39,599 scientist is getting excited about 914 00:35:44,630 --> 00:35:42,240 things that perhaps you didn't expect so 915 00:35:46,069 --> 00:35:44,640 is there anything in the data so far 916 00:35:48,230 --> 00:35:46,079 that's been coming in that you guys have 917 00:35:49,589 --> 00:35:48,240 been looking at analyzing that has 918 00:35:50,870 --> 00:35:49,599 surprised you 919 00:35:53,270 --> 00:35:50,880 excited you about any kind of 920 00:35:55,109 --> 00:35:53,280 breakthrough about what the technology 921 00:35:58,790 --> 00:35:55,119 is going to do for the future pedro or 922 00:36:01,910 --> 00:36:01,030 why don't you take it away 923 00:36:06,630 --> 00:36:01,920 okay 924 00:36:08,069 --> 00:36:06,640 i think one thing uh that's been kind of 925 00:36:10,069 --> 00:36:08,079 interesting about this particular 926 00:36:12,390 --> 00:36:10,079 experiment at least is 927 00:36:15,510 --> 00:36:12,400 that we came out here um with 928 00:36:17,349 --> 00:36:15,520 aspirations of sampling heavy rain 929 00:36:19,670 --> 00:36:17,359 and we certainly have had that there's 930 00:36:22,310 --> 00:36:19,680 no question um i don't know that we've 931 00:36:24,870 --> 00:36:22,320 seen anything surprising in the ask 932 00:36:27,190 --> 00:36:24,880 with respect to what we expected to see 933 00:36:29,109 --> 00:36:27,200 for the rainfall process itself but i 934 00:36:31,109 --> 00:36:29,119 will say this 935 00:36:33,510 --> 00:36:31,119 when we came out here we brought 936 00:36:34,870 --> 00:36:33,520 multiple frequency radars here we've got 937 00:36:35,990 --> 00:36:34,880 you know all kinds of frequencies and 938 00:36:38,069 --> 00:36:36,000 radars 939 00:36:39,910 --> 00:36:38,079 and so we came out you know to sample 940 00:36:41,829 --> 00:36:39,920 rain and we started off however with a 941 00:36:43,349 --> 00:36:41,839 historic snowstorm 942 00:36:45,670 --> 00:36:43,359 and um 943 00:36:47,910 --> 00:36:45,680 and that that actually gave us a great 944 00:36:49,670 --> 00:36:47,920 opportunity believe it or not um you 945 00:36:51,430 --> 00:36:49,680 know we were just up in canada a year 946 00:36:53,589 --> 00:36:51,440 ago doing the snowfall experiment 947 00:36:55,910 --> 00:36:53,599 because of course gpm is going to do 948 00:36:57,030 --> 00:36:55,920 snowfall as well 949 00:36:58,790 --> 00:36:57,040 but 950 00:37:00,230 --> 00:36:58,800 this was the first time that we actually 951 00:37:02,630 --> 00:37:00,240 could sample 952 00:37:04,470 --> 00:37:02,640 an event with snow mixtures of snow and 953 00:37:05,430 --> 00:37:04,480 rain mixtures of ice pellets and snow 954 00:37:07,589 --> 00:37:05,440 and rain 955 00:37:10,069 --> 00:37:07,599 a really complex weather event actually 956 00:37:12,310 --> 00:37:10,079 right when we got out here with our uh 957 00:37:13,829 --> 00:37:12,320 with our dual frequency radar at the 958 00:37:15,670 --> 00:37:13,839 same frequencies actually that will be 959 00:37:17,190 --> 00:37:15,680 flying on a satellite in 960 00:37:19,349 --> 00:37:17,200 february 961 00:37:21,349 --> 00:37:19,359 and uh and a radar like the end pole 962 00:37:23,270 --> 00:37:21,359 which uh which has a completely or a 963 00:37:25,670 --> 00:37:23,280 much lower uh frequency and longer 964 00:37:27,270 --> 00:37:25,680 wavelength and uh and that's really 965 00:37:29,030 --> 00:37:27,280 important because it enabled us to see 966 00:37:31,510 --> 00:37:29,040 some interesting um 967 00:37:32,710 --> 00:37:31,520 signatures in the precipitation itself 968 00:37:34,950 --> 00:37:32,720 and the different layering of the 969 00:37:36,790 --> 00:37:34,960 precipitation the complexity actually in 970 00:37:39,109 --> 00:37:36,800 the vertical that's going to be actually 971 00:37:41,190 --> 00:37:39,119 quite critical to how we interpret what 972 00:37:42,310 --> 00:37:41,200 it is we're seeing from space with the 973 00:37:44,710 --> 00:37:42,320 radar 974 00:37:46,150 --> 00:37:44,720 in space and i think that perhaps that 975 00:37:48,470 --> 00:37:46,160 that will be an event that we weren't 976 00:37:50,069 --> 00:37:48,480 anticipating but that will be very 977 00:37:51,270 --> 00:37:50,079 useful to us in terms of trying to 978 00:37:52,470 --> 00:37:51,280 figure out how we deal with 979 00:37:54,230 --> 00:37:52,480 precipitation like that in the 980 00:37:55,670 --> 00:37:54,240 mid-latitudes 981 00:37:57,990 --> 00:37:55,680 on both the northern and southern 982 00:38:01,270 --> 00:37:58,000 hemispheres so that was actually kind of 983 00:38:07,270 --> 00:38:02,550 well 984 00:38:10,310 --> 00:38:07,280 let me just add that this has been 985 00:38:12,470 --> 00:38:10,320 an extremely busy you know campaign 986 00:38:14,310 --> 00:38:12,480 um so 987 00:38:16,829 --> 00:38:14,320 we had very few 988 00:38:19,670 --> 00:38:16,839 days with no rain 989 00:38:21,910 --> 00:38:19,680 um uh during the last you know five or 990 00:38:23,910 --> 00:38:21,920 six weeks um 991 00:38:27,589 --> 00:38:23,920 and but when we were planning you know 992 00:38:30,950 --> 00:38:27,599 the campaign when uh nasa was making the 993 00:38:31,829 --> 00:38:30,960 final decision uh when and where to host 994 00:38:38,550 --> 00:38:31,839 it 995 00:38:42,950 --> 00:38:38,560 were in a severe drought 996 00:38:48,230 --> 00:38:45,349 what i was saying you know earlier that 997 00:38:51,430 --> 00:38:48,240 here in iowa we've got you know floods 998 00:38:53,829 --> 00:38:51,440 so last year it was not true at all 999 00:38:55,670 --> 00:38:53,839 we were in a severe you know drought 1000 00:38:57,670 --> 00:38:55,680 um so so 1001 00:38:59,030 --> 00:38:57,680 things turned that out 1002 00:39:01,990 --> 00:38:59,040 quite a bit 1003 00:39:04,790 --> 00:39:02,000 and again not only that we got you know 1004 00:39:07,670 --> 00:39:04,800 plenty of rainfall you know data 1005 00:39:10,470 --> 00:39:07,680 um but you also got some flooding so so 1006 00:39:13,030 --> 00:39:10,480 we will have a very good information 1007 00:39:17,190 --> 00:39:13,040 um to 1008 00:39:19,430 --> 00:39:17,200 analyze that entire you know cycle from 1009 00:39:20,870 --> 00:39:19,440 from rainfall 1010 00:39:24,150 --> 00:39:20,880 all the way to 1011 00:39:25,910 --> 00:39:24,160 uh to flooding so 1012 00:39:27,829 --> 00:39:25,920 um we're getting a number of questions 1013 00:39:30,230 --> 00:39:27,839 on on youtube and other social media 1014 00:39:32,630 --> 00:39:30,240 channels more sort of asking shouldn't 1015 00:39:34,390 --> 00:39:32,640 people just move and i'm wondering you 1016 00:39:36,230 --> 00:39:34,400 know it's not exactly a question for 1017 00:39:38,630 --> 00:39:36,240 exactly your rainfall studies but i'm 1018 00:39:40,950 --> 00:39:38,640 wondering if you see places that do get 1019 00:39:42,790 --> 00:39:40,960 flooded time and time again i mean how 1020 00:39:44,710 --> 00:39:42,800 good is prediction if you can't really 1021 00:39:46,310 --> 00:39:44,720 well move your house around i'm 1022 00:39:48,150 --> 00:39:46,320 wondering people know that you study 1023 00:39:49,270 --> 00:39:48,160 flooding do you get those questions 1024 00:39:52,069 --> 00:39:49,280 quite a bit 1025 00:39:58,310 --> 00:39:52,079 on on just that aspect of where people 1026 00:40:07,670 --> 00:40:01,270 i'll throw it to pedro first 1027 00:40:10,870 --> 00:40:09,589 i personally would not live in an area 1028 00:40:13,030 --> 00:40:10,880 which is 1029 00:40:17,109 --> 00:40:13,040 prone to flooding okay i would not live 1030 00:40:20,230 --> 00:40:17,119 in an area that is downstream of a dam 1031 00:40:21,430 --> 00:40:20,240 right from the expert oh yes 1032 00:40:23,109 --> 00:40:21,440 oh yes 1033 00:40:25,670 --> 00:40:23,119 and if the 1034 00:40:27,030 --> 00:40:25,680 predictions from the climate change come 1035 00:40:29,109 --> 00:40:27,040 through 1036 00:40:31,430 --> 00:40:29,119 we are going to see more incidents of 1037 00:40:32,390 --> 00:40:31,440 flooding although there is no evidence 1038 00:40:34,310 --> 00:40:32,400 yet 1039 00:40:37,030 --> 00:40:34,320 that we are seeing that the frequency of 1040 00:40:39,430 --> 00:40:37,040 flooding has increased but it has the 1041 00:40:41,270 --> 00:40:39,440 center the century goes on if those 1042 00:40:44,230 --> 00:40:41,280 traditions come through we're going to 1043 00:40:47,349 --> 00:40:44,240 see more incidents of flooding 1044 00:40:49,670 --> 00:40:47,359 a single event just cannot tell you that 1045 00:40:51,430 --> 00:40:49,680 climate change is being confirmed but 1046 00:40:53,829 --> 00:40:51,440 once you start to see 1047 00:40:56,470 --> 00:40:53,839 that that frequency again still being 1048 00:40:58,870 --> 00:40:56,480 repeating every 20 years or every 50 1049 00:41:02,790 --> 00:40:58,880 years they come every 10 years every 15 1050 00:41:04,950 --> 00:41:02,800 years and so on then it tells you that 1051 00:41:06,790 --> 00:41:04,960 you have to take other actions 1052 00:41:09,030 --> 00:41:06,800 protect your 1053 00:41:10,630 --> 00:41:09,040 permanent protections for property in 1054 00:41:12,950 --> 00:41:10,640 the forms of levies 1055 00:41:14,790 --> 00:41:12,960 has some advantages but it also has some 1056 00:41:17,349 --> 00:41:14,800 real advantages 1057 00:41:19,430 --> 00:41:17,359 the fact is that it actually creates a 1058 00:41:21,030 --> 00:41:19,440 super highway for the flood to go 1059 00:41:23,510 --> 00:41:21,040 through instead of having the flood 1060 00:41:25,670 --> 00:41:23,520 spreading through the floodplain it just 1061 00:41:27,990 --> 00:41:25,680 goes through it goes much faster and 1062 00:41:30,550 --> 00:41:28,000 again it is stronger so there are plus 1063 00:41:31,910 --> 00:41:30,560 and minuses of those uh defenses 1064 00:41:34,069 --> 00:41:31,920 and uh 1065 00:41:35,589 --> 00:41:34,079 there are other possibilities like for 1066 00:41:37,109 --> 00:41:35,599 example what the dodge 1067 00:41:39,990 --> 00:41:37,119 uh do 1068 00:41:42,470 --> 00:41:40,000 they have been fighting as we know 1069 00:41:44,790 --> 00:41:42,480 the sea for four centuries 1070 00:41:47,829 --> 00:41:44,800 and uh in their case when they have 1071 00:41:49,109 --> 00:41:47,839 river flooding they know which areas 1072 00:41:52,069 --> 00:41:49,119 will be 1073 00:41:54,390 --> 00:41:52,079 deliberately flooded to prevent further 1074 00:41:56,390 --> 00:41:54,400 damage downstream so the people who live 1075 00:41:58,309 --> 00:41:56,400 in those areas already know that what is 1076 00:42:00,230 --> 00:41:58,319 going to happen they are prepared and 1077 00:42:03,190 --> 00:42:00,240 they are also prepared to be compensated 1078 00:42:05,190 --> 00:42:03,200 by the damages that they they occur 1079 00:42:08,390 --> 00:42:05,200 if you remember on the mississippi river 1080 00:42:10,710 --> 00:42:08,400 last year there was on purpose that one 1081 00:42:13,109 --> 00:42:10,720 of those levees was breached and it 1082 00:42:15,510 --> 00:42:13,119 actually you could see how the 1083 00:42:17,510 --> 00:42:15,520 the surface of the water dropped in 1084 00:42:19,109 --> 00:42:17,520 response to that so this is another 1085 00:42:21,109 --> 00:42:19,119 management technique 1086 00:42:23,190 --> 00:42:21,119 but uh 1087 00:42:25,109 --> 00:42:23,200 if i were to answer the question if i 1088 00:42:26,790 --> 00:42:25,119 were living there i would move to higher 1089 00:42:27,910 --> 00:42:26,800 ground 1090 00:42:28,870 --> 00:42:27,920 we have a 1091 00:42:30,710 --> 00:42:28,880 question 1092 00:42:32,390 --> 00:42:30,720 from a teacher 1093 00:42:34,550 --> 00:42:32,400 i hope she's still watching i'm going to 1094 00:42:37,670 --> 00:42:34,560 unfortunately i'm sure butcher her name 1095 00:42:39,030 --> 00:42:37,680 maria lorraine de ruiz alma 1096 00:42:40,870 --> 00:42:39,040 and she says that she believes in the 1097 00:42:42,950 --> 00:42:40,880 power of community and is wondering if 1098 00:42:45,430 --> 00:42:42,960 we can locate lots of rain gauges in 1099 00:42:47,510 --> 00:42:45,440 areas around rivers that of places that 1100 00:42:49,589 --> 00:42:47,520 can be affected by floods you'll be 1101 00:42:51,270 --> 00:42:49,599 having more accurate data and that will 1102 00:42:53,430 --> 00:42:51,280 represent all the micro climate 1103 00:42:55,910 --> 00:42:53,440 variables and will help the community 1104 00:42:58,950 --> 00:42:55,920 make better and faster 1105 00:43:01,349 --> 00:42:58,960 decisions and actions well i know that 1106 00:43:03,349 --> 00:43:01,359 one of the reasons that the gpm 1107 00:43:06,150 --> 00:43:03,359 the global precipitation measurement 1108 00:43:08,069 --> 00:43:06,160 mission is deemed so exciting is because 1109 00:43:09,829 --> 00:43:08,079 people think of rain gauges as being 1110 00:43:11,430 --> 00:43:09,839 everywhere but they're actually if you 1111 00:43:14,550 --> 00:43:11,440 look at it worldwide there's not many 1112 00:43:16,150 --> 00:43:14,560 rain gauges anywhere and hopefully using 1113 00:43:17,510 --> 00:43:16,160 a satellite which actually circles the 1114 00:43:19,030 --> 00:43:17,520 earth will be able to give us more data 1115 00:43:21,430 --> 00:43:19,040 can you sort of draw that out a little 1116 00:43:22,390 --> 00:43:21,440 bit more sure sure 1117 00:43:27,270 --> 00:43:22,400 so 1118 00:43:31,910 --> 00:43:30,230 for this uh this type of application um 1119 00:43:33,270 --> 00:43:31,920 interesting thing though is is uh you 1120 00:43:35,430 --> 00:43:33,280 know you're talking about you know a 1121 00:43:37,190 --> 00:43:35,440 four inch to eight inch type 1122 00:43:38,829 --> 00:43:37,200 type gauge and if you took all those 1123 00:43:41,349 --> 00:43:38,839 reporting gauges 1124 00:43:43,670 --> 00:43:41,359 globally um and you sort of gathered 1125 00:43:45,829 --> 00:43:43,680 them all together um basically you'd 1126 00:43:48,790 --> 00:43:45,839 fill up about two basketball courts of 1127 00:43:50,390 --> 00:43:48,800 area which you know that's not 1128 00:43:51,589 --> 00:43:50,400 you know that's a relatively small 1129 00:43:55,270 --> 00:43:51,599 fraction of the earth that you're 1130 00:43:56,069 --> 00:43:55,280 sampling with just three gauges okay 1131 00:43:57,670 --> 00:43:56,079 this is 1132 00:43:59,990 --> 00:43:57,680 two basketball courts that's all 1133 00:44:01,349 --> 00:44:00,000 everything in the entire world well yeah 1134 00:44:02,710 --> 00:44:01,359 that's you know that's the gauges we 1135 00:44:05,030 --> 00:44:02,720 know about of course there are others 1136 00:44:07,270 --> 00:44:05,040 and actually you know one gauge is 1137 00:44:09,670 --> 00:44:07,280 really actually representative of a 1138 00:44:11,510 --> 00:44:09,680 different sized area depending on 1139 00:44:13,430 --> 00:44:11,520 the amount of time that you accumulate a 1140 00:44:14,950 --> 00:44:13,440 rainfall estimate for example but really 1141 00:44:16,710 --> 00:44:14,960 it's a very small fraction of the 1142 00:44:17,990 --> 00:44:16,720 earth's surface and then of course you 1143 00:44:19,829 --> 00:44:18,000 have to account for the fact that you 1144 00:44:20,710 --> 00:44:19,839 know three quarters of your surface is 1145 00:44:22,550 --> 00:44:20,720 ocean 1146 00:44:24,470 --> 00:44:22,560 and we don't have that many rain gauges 1147 00:44:27,190 --> 00:44:24,480 sitting out there on the ocean you know 1148 00:44:28,870 --> 00:44:27,200 there's some on buoys and such but um 1149 00:44:30,790 --> 00:44:28,880 but there's not a lot of rain gauges out 1150 00:44:33,109 --> 00:44:30,800 there so you go from a rain gauge which 1151 00:44:35,109 --> 00:44:33,119 is your point estimate to uh to a radar 1152 00:44:36,870 --> 00:44:35,119 which gives you a much broader 1153 00:44:40,150 --> 00:44:36,880 uh area measurement over you know a 1154 00:44:43,349 --> 00:44:40,160 domain about 10 000 square kilometers 1155 00:44:45,030 --> 00:44:43,359 um and at a relatively fine resolution 1156 00:44:47,349 --> 00:44:45,040 but you have issues sometimes with 1157 00:44:48,470 --> 00:44:47,359 accuracy and a radar estimate and then 1158 00:44:50,470 --> 00:44:48,480 you move up you know if you want 1159 00:44:52,790 --> 00:44:50,480 something globally the only answer to 1160 00:44:55,190 --> 00:44:52,800 really get you to that global scale is 1161 00:44:57,030 --> 00:44:55,200 is a satellite and really to give you 1162 00:44:58,630 --> 00:44:57,040 that uniform measurement also it's a 1163 00:44:59,750 --> 00:44:58,640 satellite that's what you what you have 1164 00:45:02,069 --> 00:44:59,760 to use 1165 00:45:03,670 --> 00:45:02,079 and so that's kind of how that works and 1166 00:45:05,270 --> 00:45:03,680 you know rain gauges 1167 00:45:07,109 --> 00:45:05,280 rain gauges are great as long as you 1168 00:45:09,430 --> 00:45:07,119 take very good care of them check them 1169 00:45:10,150 --> 00:45:09,440 regularly you know because they get um 1170 00:45:12,630 --> 00:45:10,160 uh 1171 00:45:13,990 --> 00:45:12,640 filled up with leaves and birds tend to 1172 00:45:15,829 --> 00:45:14,000 like them for you know using the 1173 00:45:18,390 --> 00:45:15,839 bathroom in for example 1174 00:45:20,230 --> 00:45:18,400 making nests and things like that you 1175 00:45:21,829 --> 00:45:20,240 really have to pay attention to what you 1176 00:45:23,349 --> 00:45:21,839 what you do with your rain gauge where 1177 00:45:25,670 --> 00:45:23,359 you locate your rain gauges very 1178 00:45:27,670 --> 00:45:25,680 specific things 1179 00:45:29,430 --> 00:45:27,680 that actually make a rain gauge or help 1180 00:45:31,030 --> 00:45:29,440 rain gauge give you to get a valid 1181 00:45:33,510 --> 00:45:31,040 measurement so 1182 00:45:36,150 --> 00:45:33,520 these are all things that argue for for 1183 00:45:38,309 --> 00:45:36,160 a remote sensing application like 1184 00:45:40,150 --> 00:45:38,319 a satellite 1185 00:45:42,069 --> 00:45:40,160 and walt just showed some of the the 1186 00:45:43,990 --> 00:45:42,079 beauty of being on a field campaign of 1187 00:45:46,390 --> 00:45:44,000 emptying out rain gauges full of birds 1188 00:45:49,109 --> 00:45:46,400 nests and and other things 1189 00:45:51,829 --> 00:45:49,119 we have a question that came in um from 1190 00:45:54,790 --> 00:45:51,839 youtube by uh jason blumfeld and i 1191 00:45:57,270 --> 00:45:54,800 believe it's it's more for uh vtech 1192 00:46:00,550 --> 00:45:57,280 his question is could the excess flood 1193 00:46:03,670 --> 00:46:00,560 water that comes in during a flood be 1194 00:46:06,550 --> 00:46:03,680 filter infiltrated into aquifers or help 1195 00:46:08,309 --> 00:46:06,560 irrigation in dry areas is it possible 1196 00:46:10,550 --> 00:46:08,319 to manipulate water on such a large 1197 00:46:12,950 --> 00:46:10,560 scale i mean we know that we have dams 1198 00:46:15,190 --> 00:46:12,960 all across the world but we don't i'm 1199 00:46:17,589 --> 00:46:15,200 not necessarily sure if we use dams to 1200 00:46:19,990 --> 00:46:17,599 work with flooding uh v-tech is that a 1201 00:46:22,470 --> 00:46:20,000 question for you or maybe pedro 1202 00:46:26,829 --> 00:46:22,480 yeah i'll be i'll be happy to 1203 00:46:33,190 --> 00:46:29,190 so there are 1204 00:46:34,230 --> 00:46:33,200 many um reservoirs that are built around 1205 00:46:37,510 --> 00:46:34,240 the world 1206 00:46:40,710 --> 00:46:37,520 um specifically for this purpose so 1207 00:46:42,550 --> 00:46:40,720 there are reservoirs that are built for 1208 00:46:43,990 --> 00:46:42,560 flat protection 1209 00:46:47,270 --> 00:46:44,000 and 1210 00:46:51,030 --> 00:46:47,280 but many of them have multiple purposes 1211 00:46:57,190 --> 00:46:52,790 electricity 1212 00:46:58,550 --> 00:46:57,200 or for providing water for irrigation 1213 00:47:01,030 --> 00:46:58,560 providing 1214 00:47:03,190 --> 00:47:01,040 water for recreation 1215 00:47:04,470 --> 00:47:03,200 so these are 1216 00:47:06,870 --> 00:47:04,480 very 1217 00:47:09,670 --> 00:47:06,880 large and complex and expensive you know 1218 00:47:10,870 --> 00:47:09,680 systems that help us manage water 1219 00:47:12,470 --> 00:47:10,880 resources 1220 00:47:15,510 --> 00:47:12,480 um and so 1221 00:47:18,950 --> 00:47:15,520 um we have many of those in the united 1222 00:47:21,589 --> 00:47:18,960 states and and there are many uh famous 1223 00:47:24,390 --> 00:47:21,599 ones around the world so um so that 1224 00:47:28,230 --> 00:47:24,400 concept is is not new 1225 00:47:33,510 --> 00:47:30,470 i myself you know thought about you know 1226 00:47:35,190 --> 00:47:33,520 this this very question uh a couple of 1227 00:47:38,470 --> 00:47:35,200 years ago 1228 00:47:39,910 --> 00:47:38,480 we were experiencing uh 1229 00:47:42,390 --> 00:47:39,920 a prolonged 1230 00:47:45,910 --> 00:47:42,400 flood on the missouri river 1231 00:47:49,589 --> 00:47:45,920 at the same time when texas was 1232 00:47:52,870 --> 00:47:49,599 experiencing an extreme you know drought 1233 00:47:54,950 --> 00:47:52,880 and i thought that the states that 1234 00:47:57,750 --> 00:47:54,960 border the missouri 1235 00:47:59,190 --> 00:47:57,760 river you know south dakota nebraska 1236 00:48:01,270 --> 00:47:59,200 iowa 1237 00:48:03,829 --> 00:48:01,280 you know missouri that they could have 1238 00:48:07,910 --> 00:48:03,839 made a lot of you know money if they 1239 00:48:13,589 --> 00:48:10,550 but but of course you know such a system 1240 00:48:14,790 --> 00:48:13,599 is is not you know in place so 1241 00:48:18,950 --> 00:48:14,800 um 1242 00:48:24,630 --> 00:48:22,069 you know detrimental to to to think of 1243 00:48:26,390 --> 00:48:24,640 this for many other you know reasons 1244 00:48:27,510 --> 00:48:26,400 that we really don't have the time to go 1245 00:48:30,309 --> 00:48:27,520 into but 1246 00:48:35,829 --> 00:48:30,319 but we do have such systems that help us 1247 00:48:40,790 --> 00:48:38,710 i have a question or slash statement and 1248 00:48:42,710 --> 00:48:40,800 kind of want to see what you gentlemen 1249 00:48:44,870 --> 00:48:42,720 are thinking about uh we were talking 1250 00:48:47,270 --> 00:48:44,880 with pedro talking about you know do we 1251 00:48:49,510 --> 00:48:47,280 move people who are in these flooded 1252 00:48:50,950 --> 00:48:49,520 areas do you choose to live there do we 1253 00:48:52,470 --> 00:48:50,960 force people out 1254 00:48:54,710 --> 00:48:52,480 and but also v-tech you were talking 1255 00:48:56,630 --> 00:48:54,720 about cedar rapids several years ago 1256 00:48:58,549 --> 00:48:56,640 with the big flood there and having a 1257 00:49:00,150 --> 00:48:58,559 little bit more time with a better 1258 00:49:01,190 --> 00:49:00,160 forecast could have saved billions of 1259 00:49:03,270 --> 00:49:01,200 dollars 1260 00:49:06,069 --> 00:49:03,280 i immediately thought about the red 1261 00:49:09,109 --> 00:49:06,079 river flooding this year in fargo where 1262 00:49:11,190 --> 00:49:09,119 the forecast was very high 1263 00:49:13,829 --> 00:49:11,200 near record 1264 00:49:16,790 --> 00:49:13,839 it ended up being several feet below and 1265 00:49:18,790 --> 00:49:16,800 instead of losing money due to loss of 1266 00:49:21,270 --> 00:49:18,800 property because now the flood wasn't as 1267 00:49:24,069 --> 00:49:21,280 bad you were losing money because you 1268 00:49:26,309 --> 00:49:24,079 had all these man hours put into 1269 00:49:28,069 --> 00:49:26,319 making all these millions of sandbags 1270 00:49:30,230 --> 00:49:28,079 that never got used 1271 00:49:31,190 --> 00:49:30,240 perhaps lost tourism that kind of thing 1272 00:49:33,990 --> 00:49:31,200 um 1273 00:49:35,910 --> 00:49:34,000 how do you feel about the importance of 1274 00:49:38,230 --> 00:49:35,920 better forecasting in that regard not so 1275 00:49:40,710 --> 00:49:38,240 much saving property from flood waters 1276 00:49:42,630 --> 00:49:40,720 but actually saving man hours and 1277 00:49:44,309 --> 00:49:42,640 and that kind of aspect 1278 00:49:46,790 --> 00:49:44,319 yeah i think this is an excellent 1279 00:49:49,109 --> 00:49:46,800 question for pedro 1280 00:49:50,230 --> 00:49:49,119 i agree 1281 00:49:51,270 --> 00:49:50,240 well i'm glad you asked the question 1282 00:49:54,549 --> 00:49:51,280 maria 1283 00:49:58,549 --> 00:49:54,559 the uh the river forecast uh 1284 00:50:00,710 --> 00:49:58,559 in fargo is probably the most difficult 1285 00:50:03,030 --> 00:50:00,720 that we have in the entire area and we 1286 00:50:04,710 --> 00:50:03,040 have a very large area to cover 1287 00:50:06,150 --> 00:50:04,720 the problem in fargo 1288 00:50:10,549 --> 00:50:06,160 for the red river 1289 00:50:11,750 --> 00:50:10,559 is that the hydrology is uh complicated 1290 00:50:13,270 --> 00:50:11,760 because you have the problem of the 1291 00:50:15,750 --> 00:50:13,280 frozen ground 1292 00:50:19,589 --> 00:50:15,760 we have the problem of uh 1293 00:50:22,549 --> 00:50:19,599 a drought preceding the uh during the 1294 00:50:26,390 --> 00:50:22,559 summer and and the fall then we have a 1295 00:50:27,510 --> 00:50:26,400 considerable amount of snow in the uh in 1296 00:50:30,390 --> 00:50:27,520 the spring 1297 00:50:32,790 --> 00:50:30,400 and in the winter and spring and uh 1298 00:50:34,069 --> 00:50:32,800 there was no way for our models to be 1299 00:50:36,549 --> 00:50:34,079 able to consider those particular 1300 00:50:39,190 --> 00:50:36,559 circumstances 1301 00:50:40,710 --> 00:50:39,200 we don't know some of the effects that 1302 00:50:42,790 --> 00:50:40,720 of the 1303 00:50:44,230 --> 00:50:42,800 man-made modifications to the watershed 1304 00:50:47,190 --> 00:50:44,240 for example 1305 00:50:49,829 --> 00:50:47,200 there's an extensive 1306 00:50:52,630 --> 00:50:49,839 practice right now of installing 1307 00:50:55,030 --> 00:50:52,640 field drains at farms we do not 1308 00:50:57,349 --> 00:50:55,040 understand what the effect of that is on 1309 00:50:59,430 --> 00:50:57,359 on the mall on the uh of the hydrology 1310 00:51:01,270 --> 00:50:59,440 and our models certainly don't have that 1311 00:51:03,589 --> 00:51:01,280 for you to have an idea 1312 00:51:06,470 --> 00:51:03,599 one of the small watersheds on the red 1313 00:51:07,430 --> 00:51:06,480 river the headwaters the uh boiled soil 1314 00:51:09,670 --> 00:51:07,440 river 1315 00:51:12,390 --> 00:51:09,680 that's the only one that really requires 1316 00:51:14,870 --> 00:51:12,400 pyramid for distillation of uh of fuel 1317 00:51:17,910 --> 00:51:14,880 field of tile drains 1318 00:51:20,309 --> 00:51:17,920 on that watershed alone in the year 2012 1319 00:51:22,710 --> 00:51:20,319 there were seven thousand miles of 1320 00:51:24,549 --> 00:51:22,720 thousands installed if you can see 1321 00:51:28,230 --> 00:51:24,559 compare that with the size of the city 1322 00:51:29,270 --> 00:51:28,240 of fargo which has about 500 500 1323 00:51:32,870 --> 00:51:29,280 some 1324 00:51:37,990 --> 00:51:32,880 odd miles of streets that tell you give 1325 00:51:40,870 --> 00:51:38,000 you a a a a way to compare how large and 1326 00:51:41,990 --> 00:51:40,880 how what a great impact those uh drains 1327 00:51:43,589 --> 00:51:42,000 could be 1328 00:51:46,870 --> 00:51:43,599 we are working with the core of 1329 00:51:49,589 --> 00:51:46,880 engineers in uh improving the uh our 1330 00:51:52,150 --> 00:51:49,599 ability to forecast on the red river and 1331 00:51:54,309 --> 00:51:52,160 you're absolutely correct savings is not 1332 00:51:57,030 --> 00:51:54,319 only a property that you say but also 1333 00:51:59,750 --> 00:51:57,040 the amount power that you save by not 1334 00:52:01,190 --> 00:51:59,760 having to fill those uh those uh 1335 00:52:02,790 --> 00:52:01,200 sandbags 1336 00:52:05,910 --> 00:52:02,800 the city of fargo spent three million 1337 00:52:07,190 --> 00:52:05,920 dollars on and this decor of engineers 1338 00:52:09,589 --> 00:52:07,200 and other three billion dollars in 1339 00:52:11,829 --> 00:52:09,599 temporary protection because our models 1340 00:52:13,750 --> 00:52:11,839 were forecast in a much higher crest 1341 00:52:15,750 --> 00:52:13,760 than what actually was observed so 1342 00:52:18,230 --> 00:52:15,760 hopefully in the coming years we'll be 1343 00:52:20,230 --> 00:52:18,240 able to improve our models and improve 1344 00:52:22,870 --> 00:52:20,240 our knowledge of the conditions there so 1345 00:52:24,309 --> 00:52:22,880 we can save the city of fargo and the 1346 00:52:26,549 --> 00:52:24,319 old communities not only on the red 1347 00:52:30,790 --> 00:52:26,559 river but also across the board 1348 00:52:34,630 --> 00:52:32,710 protection measures 1349 00:52:37,910 --> 00:52:34,640 the other side of the coin though is if 1350 00:52:40,069 --> 00:52:37,920 we had on the forecast and the river had 1351 00:52:42,069 --> 00:52:40,079 gone way over 1352 00:52:43,829 --> 00:52:42,079 too late for any protective measures 1353 00:52:45,829 --> 00:52:43,839 then the damage would have been not only 1354 00:52:47,589 --> 00:52:45,839 in the millions but also in the billions 1355 00:52:55,190 --> 00:52:47,599 which is what happened in grand forks 1356 00:52:58,870 --> 00:52:57,349 excellent um we have time for just i 1357 00:53:00,870 --> 00:52:58,880 think two more questions we've been 1358 00:53:03,109 --> 00:53:00,880 getting questions in through uh youtube 1359 00:53:05,030 --> 00:53:03,119 through google plus through twitter at 1360 00:53:05,990 --> 00:53:05,040 our ifloods hashtag and then of course 1361 00:53:07,670 --> 00:53:06,000 from our 1362 00:53:10,150 --> 00:53:07,680 guest maria larosa from the weather 1363 00:53:11,589 --> 00:53:10,160 channel um one of the questions that we 1364 00:53:14,549 --> 00:53:11,599 have that we wanted to make sure we get 1365 00:53:16,549 --> 00:53:14,559 to i know we're almost out of time but 1366 00:53:18,470 --> 00:53:16,559 it's a question for pedro and it's heavy 1367 00:53:20,390 --> 00:53:18,480 rain is the cause of most flooding 1368 00:53:22,870 --> 00:53:20,400 obviously but and this is going to be 1369 00:53:25,190 --> 00:53:22,880 predicting flooding what's the status of 1370 00:53:27,829 --> 00:53:25,200 predicting landsat landslides that are 1371 00:53:29,829 --> 00:53:27,839 triggered by rain landslides are are 1372 00:53:32,470 --> 00:53:29,839 clearly one of the most deadly aspects 1373 00:53:34,790 --> 00:53:32,480 of this especially in the developing 1374 00:53:37,109 --> 00:53:34,800 world pedro how can you possibly use 1375 00:53:38,870 --> 00:53:37,119 this to work in predicting or 1376 00:53:40,870 --> 00:53:38,880 determining or even just studying 1377 00:53:42,710 --> 00:53:40,880 landslides they're very sudden uh 1378 00:53:44,630 --> 00:53:42,720 effects as far as i can tell 1379 00:53:47,030 --> 00:53:44,640 well it is a very good question too and 1380 00:53:50,230 --> 00:53:47,040 it is a very difficult problem 1381 00:53:52,870 --> 00:53:50,240 we have uh we have jointly with with the 1382 00:53:55,349 --> 00:53:52,880 usgs a program for forecasting debris 1383 00:53:56,870 --> 00:53:55,359 flows which is the technical name for 1384 00:54:00,390 --> 00:53:56,880 what people 1385 00:54:02,950 --> 00:54:00,400 know more commonly as mudslides 1386 00:54:05,750 --> 00:54:02,960 the brief laws are the type of landslide 1387 00:54:08,150 --> 00:54:05,760 that occur suddenly 1388 00:54:10,470 --> 00:54:08,160 during heavy precipitation events 1389 00:54:11,270 --> 00:54:10,480 but it is particularly serious 1390 00:54:13,510 --> 00:54:11,280 for 1391 00:54:15,510 --> 00:54:13,520 the areas that have been subjected to 1392 00:54:18,390 --> 00:54:15,520 forest fires mountainous areas of the 1393 00:54:21,270 --> 00:54:18,400 forest fires because the 1394 00:54:23,190 --> 00:54:21,280 ground is left without protection and 1395 00:54:25,510 --> 00:54:23,200 the the heavy precipitation that will 1396 00:54:28,150 --> 00:54:25,520 fall on the uh 1397 00:54:30,390 --> 00:54:28,160 burned area will cause landslides what 1398 00:54:31,190 --> 00:54:30,400 makes it very difficult to forecast is 1399 00:54:32,870 --> 00:54:31,200 that 1400 00:54:35,190 --> 00:54:32,880 in contrast with 1401 00:54:37,270 --> 00:54:35,200 flash floods or common floods where we 1402 00:54:38,630 --> 00:54:37,280 know that the flood occurs at the bottom 1403 00:54:41,750 --> 00:54:38,640 of the valley 1404 00:54:43,589 --> 00:54:41,760 landslides occur anywhere on the side of 1405 00:54:45,270 --> 00:54:43,599 the mountain of the hill 1406 00:54:46,950 --> 00:54:45,280 it can occur anywhere so it is very 1407 00:54:48,470 --> 00:54:46,960 difficult to forecast where exactly 1408 00:54:50,870 --> 00:54:48,480 that's going to happen it is in fact 1409 00:54:53,670 --> 00:54:50,880 many factors so the usgs is currently 1410 00:54:55,430 --> 00:54:53,680 working in improving the models that 1411 00:54:57,270 --> 00:54:55,440 will be able to tell 1412 00:55:00,390 --> 00:54:57,280 working jointly with us with not only 1413 00:55:08,470 --> 00:55:00,400 with observation but also be forecast 1414 00:55:11,829 --> 00:55:10,150 wonderful and then i'm wondering that 1415 00:55:13,109 --> 00:55:11,839 falls nicely into and we've talked about 1416 00:55:14,710 --> 00:55:13,119 this a little bit but how this 1417 00:55:16,470 --> 00:55:14,720 information is going to get out to the 1418 00:55:18,309 --> 00:55:16,480 to emergency management people to 1419 00:55:20,390 --> 00:55:18,319 weather forecasters to things like that 1420 00:55:22,230 --> 00:55:20,400 we've talked a lot about how gpm the g 1421 00:55:24,790 --> 00:55:22,240 stands for global and then this 1422 00:55:27,430 --> 00:55:24,800 particular uh ground validation campaign 1423 00:55:29,190 --> 00:55:27,440 is very very local right there in iowa 1424 00:55:30,390 --> 00:55:29,200 how are we going to go back and forth 1425 00:55:33,030 --> 00:55:30,400 and pedro it looks like you've got an 1426 00:55:35,589 --> 00:55:33,040 answer uh yeah well i forgot to mention 1427 00:55:37,750 --> 00:55:35,599 too for landslides because that was the 1428 00:55:39,829 --> 00:55:37,760 connection to the question gpa is going 1429 00:55:42,309 --> 00:55:39,839 to be viral for landslide forecasting 1430 00:55:44,150 --> 00:55:42,319 because it is going to be covering areas 1431 00:55:46,230 --> 00:55:44,160 in the mountains that are not currently 1432 00:55:49,190 --> 00:55:46,240 covered by the by the raiders 1433 00:55:51,430 --> 00:55:49,200 okay now about the forecast globally 1434 00:55:53,030 --> 00:55:51,440 worldwide we have at the weather service 1435 00:55:55,109 --> 00:55:53,040 we have a 1436 00:55:57,109 --> 00:55:55,119 contact with uh the weather services or 1437 00:55:58,230 --> 00:55:57,119 essentially of all over the world 1438 00:56:01,589 --> 00:55:58,240 through the world meteorological 1439 00:56:04,230 --> 00:56:01,599 organization and i'm sure that nasa will 1440 00:56:06,309 --> 00:56:04,240 have something similar to on the ability 1441 00:56:09,430 --> 00:56:06,319 to get the forecast and the observations 1442 00:56:10,710 --> 00:56:09,440 on time so let walt uh complete that uh 1443 00:56:12,710 --> 00:56:10,720 response 1444 00:56:15,349 --> 00:56:12,720 yeah actually i would just add to 1445 00:56:18,309 --> 00:56:15,359 pedro's response there that in fact nasa 1446 00:56:20,789 --> 00:56:18,319 precipitation measurement missions uh 1447 00:56:22,309 --> 00:56:20,799 science team actually has funded a 1448 00:56:24,390 --> 00:56:22,319 couple of studies a couple of 1449 00:56:26,069 --> 00:56:24,400 researchers to look at actually 1450 00:56:27,910 --> 00:56:26,079 constructing 1451 00:56:29,910 --> 00:56:27,920 landslide models 1452 00:56:32,230 --> 00:56:29,920 for more global applications and i think 1453 00:56:34,870 --> 00:56:32,240 um that application right now is in its 1454 00:56:36,870 --> 00:56:34,880 infancy but uh but actually the systems 1455 00:56:39,030 --> 00:56:36,880 are somewhat together and so as we move 1456 00:56:41,190 --> 00:56:39,040 along here with gpm 1457 00:56:43,109 --> 00:56:41,200 and get and get better with things uh i 1458 00:56:44,390 --> 00:56:43,119 believe we'll have these global 1459 00:56:46,150 --> 00:56:44,400 landslide 1460 00:56:47,910 --> 00:56:46,160 monitoring and prediction systems in 1461 00:56:49,829 --> 00:56:47,920 place which is 1462 00:56:51,589 --> 00:56:49,839 fairly important even though we're not 1463 00:56:52,549 --> 00:56:51,599 maybe that great at forecasting it now 1464 00:56:54,069 --> 00:56:52,559 we will get better and the 1465 00:56:55,030 --> 00:56:54,079 infrastructure will already be in place 1466 00:56:57,510 --> 00:56:55,040 to do it 1467 00:57:00,630 --> 00:56:57,520 so that is something that nasa is always 1468 00:57:03,190 --> 00:57:01,990 well thank you so much everyone thank 1469 00:57:05,589 --> 00:57:03,200 you everyone who's been watching this 1470 00:57:07,910 --> 00:57:05,599 hangout as it's been airing live on on 1471 00:57:09,670 --> 00:57:07,920 google plus and on youtube um this 1472 00:57:11,750 --> 00:57:09,680 hangout is going to be archived in 1473 00:57:13,910 --> 00:57:11,760 youtube at the goddard youtube channel 1474 00:57:15,750 --> 00:57:13,920 so anyone watching this later thanks for 1475 00:57:17,190 --> 00:57:15,760 watching it later after the fact we've 1476 00:57:19,430 --> 00:57:17,200 been talking about floods and flood 1477 00:57:21,829 --> 00:57:19,440 prediction i'm here in this hangout and 1478 00:57:24,150 --> 00:57:21,839 joining us has been vita krajewski from 1479 00:57:26,710 --> 00:57:24,160 iowa city he's the director of the iowa 1480 00:57:28,870 --> 00:57:26,720 flood center in minneapolis minnesota's 1481 00:57:31,190 --> 00:57:28,880 pedro rostopo the hydraulic 1482 00:57:34,549 --> 00:57:31,200 hydrologist in charge for the national 1483 00:57:37,670 --> 00:57:34,559 weather service's north central river 1484 00:57:39,910 --> 00:57:37,680 forecast center and then 1485 00:57:42,789 --> 00:57:39,920 walt peterson who is leading our nasa 1486 00:57:45,190 --> 00:57:42,799 team out in iowa walt's been joining us 1487 00:57:46,630 --> 00:57:45,200 from a research trailer in iowa so if 1488 00:57:48,549 --> 00:57:46,640 his video has been a little sticky 1489 00:57:50,630 --> 00:57:48,559 that's why and then also we've been 1490 00:57:52,710 --> 00:57:50,640 joined by maria larosa from the weather 1491 00:57:54,390 --> 00:57:52,720 channel you can follow along on 1492 00:57:56,630 --> 00:57:54,400 everything happening with the ifloods 1493 00:57:58,309 --> 00:57:56,640 campaign and everything else that nasa's 1494 00:58:01,270 --> 00:57:58,319 been doing and studying 1495 00:58:03,670 --> 00:58:01,280 storms and rainfall and snow from space 1496 00:58:05,750 --> 00:58:03,680 and from ground validation programs at 1497 00:58:08,710 --> 00:58:05,760 nasa goddard we also have a particular 1498 00:58:12,150 --> 00:58:08,720 twitter channel that focuses on rain 1499 00:58:14,950 --> 00:58:12,160 it's called it's at the at sign nasa 1500 00:58:16,789 --> 00:58:14,960 underscore rain again that's at nasa 1501 00:58:19,670 --> 00:58:16,799 underscore rain and even though we 1502 00:58:21,349 --> 00:58:19,680 called it rain it also covers snow hail 1503 00:58:22,470 --> 00:58:21,359 and all kinds grapple all kinds of other 1504 00:58:24,150 --> 00:58:22,480 precipitation 1505 00:58:25,910 --> 00:58:24,160 thanks so much for everyone joining us 1506 00:58:30,470 --> 00:58:25,920 and uh thanks again for joining this